Is Russia Worried About China’s Military Rise?

Dimitri Alexander Simes

Security, World

Strained relations between Moscow and Washington are making Russians more accepting of Chinese military power.

Even with its economy starting to slow down, China’s military is still on the rise. Years of higher military spending fueled by high economic growth are starting to manifest themselves in new technologies and newfound assertiveness. Beijing has made visible strides in its aviation, naval, and missile defense capabilities. Whether it be making territorial claims in the South China Sea or opening up its first overseas military base in Djibouti, China is starting to exert military influence in its near abroad and beyond.

How does Russia view this development? Even as Moscow and Beijing strengthen their cooperation across all areas, many Western experts warn that China’s growing military might will increasingly become a source of tension between the two countries.

The National Interest spoke with several Russian defense analysts and Sinologists to better understand the Russian perspective on China’s military rise.

“At the present moment, our national interests coincide with China’s national interests so the development of China’s armed forces and military technology does not alarm Russia’s military command and political leadership,” said Yuri Tavrovsky, a professor at the Russian People's Friendship University.  

Nevertheless, Tavrovsky admitted that there was some level of apprehension in Moscow about China’s military build-up. “In the long run, we watch China’s success and do not rule out any possible scenario because we remember how Beijing’s foreign policy changed from the 1950’s to the reform period under Deng Xiaoping,” he said.

Alexander Lukin, a China scholar at the Higher School of Economics, expressed a similar sentiment. “My sense is that there is understanding [in the Kremlin] that someday China could pose a problem, but right now these concerns are far less than the concerns regarding the West,” he told me.

“Hypothetically speaking, if relations with the West were better, then the approach to China would probably be different,” Lukin said. “But since relations are not getting better and are unlikely to get better, the tendency towards closer cooperation with China will continue.”