U.S. Sanctions Will Not Stop Turkey's Shift Towards Russia

Enea Gjoza

Security, Middle East

If the current overtures to Turkey fail, then U.S. sanctions will likely be inevitable, and might well irreparably damage an already fraught relationship.

The political crisis resulting from Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system has profoundly damaged U.S.-Turkish relations, and things could soon get worse. Turkey flouted U.S. threats of sanctions and an end to F-35 sales to acquire the system, and Washington responded by freezing Turkey out of the F-35 program. Now, Congress is pushing for the administration to execute legally mandated U.S. sanctions on Turkey—a step that might permanently damage relations with a NATO ally.  

Turkey’s refusal to cancel the purchase is the latest in a long line of U.S. sanctions failures. Many policymakers view sanctions as an antiseptic solution to political disputes, but sanctions rarely work when a target’s core national interests are at stake. Instead, punitive sanctions often sour relations and cause target states to double down on their recalcitrance. 

The United States has legitimate concerns about the S-400: The system is not interoperable with NATO’s air defense network, and it could help Russia track F-35s in Turkish airspace and discover their vulnerabilities. Additionally, the prospect of a NATO member developing a closer strategic partnership with Russia raises questions about its commitment to the alliance. There is also an interest in securing the sale for America’s defense industry, which has been a priority for the Trump administration.