Israel's Kingmaker Loses His Crown

Matthew Petti

Politics, Middle East

Benjamin Netanyahu will probably go to jail if his political enemies don't save him.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the undefeated heavyweight champion of Israeli politics for at least a decade, has just taken a serious blow in do-over elections. But it’s not clear yet whether that was a knockout punch—or whether “Bibi” can get back up and keep swinging.

Results released by the Israeli elections authority early Wednesday afternoon showed that Netanyahu’s right-wing alliance won fifty-four seats in parliament, short of the sixty-one-seat majority needed to stay in power. But there’s no clear replacement among the opposition.

“It feels like nobody won the election, but somebody lost,” said former U.S. Ambassador Dan Shapiro, calling from Tel Aviv. “Netanyahu clearly did not succeed in getting the mandate he wanted from the public.”

Israel’s multi-party parliamentary system forces parties to combine votes to elect a new prime minister and cabinet. The next few weeks are expected to see a flurry of dealmaking.

It’s a race against the clock before Netanyahu’s preliminary hearing for corruption charges in two weeks. Netanyahu will either cement his legacy as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister or fall out of power just as several simultaneous criminal allegations catch up to him.

As Rachel Broyde, spokesman for the ruling Likud Party, told the National Interest late Tuesday night: “We just have to wait and see.”

It’s not clear whether Netanyahu’s leading rival, retired Gen. Benny Gantz, can herd together enough support to lead a new government. And Netanyahu could still pick up a few more votes—either by wooing back the nine seats held by Avigdor Lieberman’s secular nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party, or by winning over the six seats held by the center-left Labor-Gesher in a surprise deal.

Aluf Benn, editor-in-chief of Ha'aretz, told the National Interest that Netanyahu could offer Labor-Gesher cabinet positions, or even nominate its leader to the ceremonial presidency of Israel once the current president retires.

Lieberman and Gantz are demanding a unity government deal, in which the Likud would dump Netanyahu and nominate a compromise candidate.