Who Gains from Trump's Sudden Syria Withdrawal? Russia.

Mohammed Ayoob

Security, Middle East

The betrayal of the Syrian Kurds has sent a clear message to America’s allies in the region and beyond that they can no longer depend on Washington’s assurances regarding their security.

President Donald Trump has upended American policy in Syria, and possibly in the entire Middle East, in one stroke. His unilateral decision to withdraw American troops from the Kurdish region of northern Syria, and thus give a green light for the Turkish invasion of the Kurdish enclave, has put all American goals in Syria in grave jeopardy. These included protecting the autonomous Kurdish enclave as a quid pro quo for the Kurdish militia’s singular military contribution in liquidating the Islamic State and capturing its capital Raqqa at the cost of thousands of lives. They also included preventing the Assad regime from reasserting control in northern Syria (again, a very important American objective in Syria was to circumscribe Russian and Iranian reach and influence in the country). Finally, one of the principal aims of American policy in both Syrian and Iraq has been to prevent the resurgence of the ISIS.

All of these objectives now lie in tatters.

The People’s Protection Units, also known as the YPG, having been let down by the United States, has in desperation entered into an alliance with the Assad regime to counter the Turkish invasion. Syrian government forces are reported to be rapidly moving into the Kurdish enclave and toward the Turkish border. The Kurds have justified their decision by declaring that it is the duty of the Syrian government to protect the territorial integrity of the state. This is a major reversal of the YPG’s earlier stance that was anchored in gaining autonomy from Damascus and, as a corollary, preventing the intrusion of regime troops into the Kurdish proto-state. The YPG had bargained that an American military presence in the area would not only deter a Turkish attack but also discourage the Assad regime from sending in its troops into Kurdish territory. The YPG and its political arm, the PYD, seem to have given up their goal of autonomy from Damascus in return for ensuring the survival of the Kurdish people in the face of the Turkish assault that they fear could take on genocidal proportions.