Cease-Fire Chaos: The Kurds, Turkey, and Trump Administration are Touting Different Strategies

Matthew Petti

Security, Middle East

Even if the Trump administration moves closer to Turkey, the relationship between the country and Congress will sustain long-lasting damage. It’s unclear whether the latest cease-fire will mollify the cries to punish Turkey.

Vice President Mike Pence claims to have arranged a “cease-fire” between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds, but no one is on the same page.

“This is not a cease-fire, this is a pause for our operation,” said Turkish foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. However, he echoed Pence’s claims on the parameters of the agreement.

According to a joint U.S.-Turkish readout of the meeting, the two sides agreed to a “safe zone” that will be “enforced by the Turkish Armed Forces” with U.S. cooperation. Kurdish forces will withdraw from a strip along the Syrian-Turkish border, dismantling their fortifications and handing over their heavy weapons.

Gen. Mazloum “Kobani” Abdi, high commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), told Kurdish television that the SDF accepts a limited cease-fire between Ra’s al-Ayn (Serê Kaniyê) and Tel Abyad, and signalled that he will not accept a permanent Turkish presence in Syria.

“Cease-fire is one thing and surrender is another thing, and we are ready to defend ourselves,” said Salih Muslim, leader of the Democratic Union Party, the most powerful Syrian Kurdish faction. “We will not accept the occupation of northern Syria.”

“This wide divergence is a recipe for renewed conflict—Turkey will likely claim that the SDF is not living up to the deal and will use this as justification for renewed attack,” said Foreign Policy Research Institute fellow Elizabeth Tsurkov.

When asked by the National Interest, SDF diplomats in Washington declined to comment.

Pence negotiated the agreement in an October 17 trip to Turkey alongside Ambassador James Jeffrey, who cancelled a last-minute congressional hearing in Washington to attend.

The agreement gave the SDF one hundred and twenty hours to comply.

“Under the terms of the deal, championed by Vice President Pence, the SDF would essentially have to surrender the core areas of control to Turkey, and would essentially have to voluntarily deport itself from its homeland to someplace else in Syria,” said Center for a New American Security fellow Nicholas Heras, who has advised U.S. counterterrorism officials. “What President Trump's team has actually done is try to force the surrender of its best counter-ISIS partner in Syria to Turkey.”