Boris Johnson's Do-or-Die Gamble On Brexit

Hunter DeRensis

Politics, Europe

If the Brexit deal fails, then Prime Minister Johnson will be compelled by law to ask the EU for an extension.

Tomorrow the British Parliament will vote on the new deal reached between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the European Union on the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the international behemoth. The vote tally will prove a final do or die moment before the October 31 withdrawal deadline.

Johnson’s predecessor, the politically impotent Theresa May, submitted withdrawal plans four separate times to parliament, which rejected all of them with solid majorities. Subsequently, parliament, hostile to a hard Brexit and independence from the continent, passed a law demanding a deadline extension if no deal was reached by October 17.

Even hamstrung, Johnson was able to narrowly beat the clock and negotiate a new proposal.

“Where there is a will, there is a deal—we have one! It’s a fair and balanced agreement for the EU and the UK and it is testament to our commitment to find solutions,” said outgoing President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker.

The primary difference between the deals produced by May and Johnson revolve around the Irish question. Northern Ireland, as part of the United Kingdom, would be part of any withdrawal process. Currently, there are no customs posts or physical checkmarks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This is partially because they’re in the same customs union under the European Single Market, and also because of the Good Friday Agreement of 1999, which put an end to The Troubles.

A sudden hard border in Ireland could rupture the peace, which put an end to thirty years of low-level warfare which led to over 3,500 deaths. Theresa May’s solution, rejected by parliament, was to keep the entirety of the United Kingdom in the Single Market, subject to European regulations and economic diktats. This would have been a Brexit in name only. Johnson’s new agreement takes all parts of the United Kingdom out of the Single Market, with a special addendum for Northern Ireland to follow European rules and procedures on trade.