How Trump's Failed Maximum Pressure Policy Played a Role in Suleimani's Assassination

Payam Mohseni

Security, Middle East

A military escalation with a maximalist political stance only further increases perceptions of U.S. regime-change policy in Iran without concern for the violent consequences stemming from such a campaign.

The U.S. assassination of Iranian General Qassim Suleimani marks the beginning of a new and more dangerous chapter in the ongoing shadow wars between the Axis of Resistance and U.S. allies in the Middle East. The United States is now signaling that it will assume a more direct role to pushback Iranian-aligned forces in the region. As Defense Secretary Mark Esper stated a day before the assassination, “the game has changed,” thereby signaling a more confrontational and unpredictable turn of events in the Middle East.

The U.S. foreign policy objective is to ostensibly roll back Iran’s regional gains and to establish a “zero tolerance” policy against low-intensity gray zone actions, such as sporadic rocket attacks, undertaken by Iranian allies. This is an unrealistic and maximalist policy as the United States is simultaneously escalating military conflict against Iran while demanding the country militarily de-escalate—all the while closing any avenues to any meaningful political dialogue to potentially resolve outstanding issues. A military escalation with a maximalist political stance only further increases perceptions of U.S. regime-change policy in Iran without concern for the violent consequences stemming from such a campaign. This will consequently make Iran double-down on its current policies rather than change track.

Significantly, this new approach reflects the increasing abandonment of the “leading from behind” strategy undertaken by the Obama administration in which the United States would support regional countries to secure their own interests, as seen in Saudi Arabia’s (albeit unsuccessful) war in Yemen, rather than directly allow itself to get dragged into military conflict in the region.