Greece Is the Weak Spot in Post-Caliphate European Counterterrorism

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Colin P. Clarke

Security, Eurasia

Greece has been dubbed the “soft underbelly” of the European Union for terrorists looking to infiltrate the continent.

The Islamic State’s territorial caliphate was crushed nearly a year ago when the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS liberated Baghouz, the militant group’s last sliver of territory in Syria. The impact of returning foreign terrorist fighters in the wake of this territorial collapse has turned out to be lower than many observers had feared, with no terrorist attacks on European soil linked to militants fleeing the caliphate in the past year.

Yet there are grave concerns that some fighters may be biding their time. Due to a number of factors—including porous borders, high levels of corruption, and growing radicalization and Islamist extremist activity in the country—Greece could prove to be a hub for foreign terrorist fighters on the lam who are seeking to plot attacks in Europe.

Other important variables make Greece a candidate for foreign terrorist fighters to take advantage of. For one, the country’s weak security forces’ attention could be drawn to prominent non-jihadist threats, including left-wing anarchists or right-wing fascists. Another concern is that for a country like Greece that has long battled left-wing terrorists, the security forces may be too narrowly focused on that threat, leading them to overlook or downplay the presence of jihadists. A similar issue was seemingly a factor in the April 2019 Easter bombings in Sri Lanka, where the security forces had fought Tamil separatists for so long that they struggled to recognize the emerging threat posed by jihadists with links to ISIS.

The unfolding migrant crisis that has paralyzed Greece over the past several years, combined with a shaky economy and rising populism, means that jihadists simply might draw less scrutiny than they would elsewhere in Europe. This is particularly true if militants are not directing their ire at the Greek state, but instead using the country and its links to the rest of Europe to plot, plan, and organize attacks.