Drone Strike Spillover: Why the Assassination of Suleimani Could Create a Crisis for Israel

Itai Shapira

Security, Middle East

An unintended escalation may be probable but it is not predetermined. It can be averted and avoided through robust American and Israeli deterrence.

The chances of military escalation between Israel and Iran have steadily risen in recent months. Israel has struck Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq; Iran has retaliated. Meanwhile, Russia has done little to actively minimize Iranian presence in Syria while trying to limit Israeli freedom of action. The longer these dynamics continue unabated, the more likely a confrontation between Israel (probably backed by the United States), Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah, the Syrian military, and perhaps even Russian forces might seem. In the aftermath of the U.S. assassination of Suleimani, Iranian Quds Force Commander—these chances might even increase. This creates the possibility of an unintended escalation—such as the one Israel had already experienced in the past.

However, Iran, Syria and Russia are rational, avoid unnecessary risks, know how to differentiate between vital and ad hoc interests, and are sensitive to all forms of American and Israeli power tools. They can be deterred from reacting to Israeli and American actions relating to Syria, and perhaps even from using Syria to respond to the killing of Suleimani. However, rolling them back from preserving their mere presence and influence in Syria might prove harder.

Russia has warned Israel not to conduct airstrikes in Syria and has transferred sophisticated surface-to-air missiles to the Syrians to bolster its threats. Russia has even deployed its own advanced air defense systems in Syria.

But Russia probably understands that targeting an Israeli airplane, let alone an American one, might have grave consequences. A military escalation might eventually weaken Russia’s regional allies, thus jeopardizing its basic aspiration for competing with the United States in the Middle East and translating military successes to political and economic ones.