Mets Getting First Big Test Against Padres and Cubs

After winning two of three against the Arizona Diamondbacks to start their nine-game road trip, the first-place New York Mets continue heading west to take on the San Diego Padres. When looking beyond this series and into the following weekend/week — along with looking back at what New York has done thus far — this is going to be the Mets’ first big test of 2021.

Manager Luis Rojas has been working with a depleted roster, but he and his coaching staff managed to watch this club persevere and post a 17-9 record during the month of May. Before the two rainouts this past weekend wrecked what was scheduled to be a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves, New York was in the midst of a 17-games-in-17-days stretch. They received an unexpected (but probably welcomed) break, and that’s good because the next two weeks will be crucial as New York hopes to continue showing they belong at the top of the National League East standings.

Times, They’re A-Changin’

Thankfully, this current stretch of contests includes three of the worst teams in baseball: the Colorado Rockies, the Diamondbacks, and the Baltimore Orioles (who they’ll see June 8 and 9). As good teams do, the Mets took care of business by taking five of seven against Colorado and Arizona. Doing the same at Camden Yards next week is important because of the three series that sandwich their short stay in Baltimore.

After four games against the Padres at Petco Park, the Mets will welcome San Diego to Citi Field for another three games from June 11-13. Oh, and after that, the Chicago Cubs will come to town for four. When using winning percentage and run differential as the benchmarks, the Mets are going from playing three of the worst teams in baseball to facing two of the best. San Diego boasts a .596 win percentage with a +75 run differential, while the Cubs are sitting at .582 and +38, respectively.

Why This Stretch Is So Important

The Mets have been dealing with adversity and extra challenges on the injury front for a while. It’s been amazing to watch them still find ways to scratch out wins and be successful more often than not. What’s been working in their favor, though, is a schedule that’s been softer than most over the season’s first two months.

Using ESPN’s strength of schedule metric as the guide, New York’s schedule has been the second-weakest in baseball, with only the Diamondbacks finishing behind them. The rest of the NL East is spread throughout: the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins are among the 15 toughest, while the Braves and Washington Nationals are in the bottom third.

Having a softer schedule has obviously come with fewer opportunities to play teams with a record over .500. But in those limited chances, the Mets have struggled to a 2-10 record. Here’s how their record in this situation compares to the rest of the division:

And, just for the sake of more comparisons, the Cubs are 14-9 and the Padres are 18-17 when they’ve faced winning teams so far in 2021.

As we can see, this is something the Mets will clearly need to improve upon if they plan on being a legitimate postseason contender. We’ve talked about this a few times here, but it bears repeating — winning teams beat up on the inferior competition, while at least treading water against fellow contenders. Even with all the injuries, the Mets have done a good job so far this season in the first scenario, as a 25-11 record would indicate.

Performing better against winning teams was something New York had progressively gotten better at when looking at their results from 2017 through 2019. While the 2020 campaign was shortened, they were 14-18 in this situation. Not great, but that winning percentage is a lot better than what it is currently.

Having these games essentially coming one right after another is what’s going to make this a big test for Rojas’ club.

The Details Will Get Magnified

With the return of guys like Pete Alonso, Kevin Pillar, and Seth Lugo this week, along with the earlier returns of Jacob deGrom and Taijuan Walker, the Mets are a lot healthier now than they were a week or two ago. This is huge because they’re still not necessarily close to being at full strength, and all the little details are going to be incredibly important when playing teams like the Padres and Cubs.

Alonso, Dominic Smith, and Francisco Lindor need to continue on their current paths and carry the offensive load for the immediate future. The pitching staff — which has been strong from top to bottom for the majority of this year — will need to continue being among baseball’s best units. They’ve been up to the task more times than not, and it’ll be on full display as New York navigates its toughest stretch of games this season.

Last, but most certainly not least, it’ll be crucial for the Mets to not overlook Baltimore. That’ll be easy to do because 11 of the next 13 games will be such a challenge, and the Orioles series is just a two-game set that’s sandwiched by off days. Taking care of the teams they should handle easily will help create some margin in their other matchups.

And, once the Mets come out the other side of this, they’ll get to hop right back into the fire with three doubleheaders over a seven-day span. But that’s something to think about another day — New York just has to keep its eyes locked on what’s in front of them. Right now, that’s trying to win the upcoming series in San Diego.

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