The China Threat Meets the China Reality
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pDear Capitolisters, /p
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pOn the list of Washington priorities right now, the need tonbsp;emdo something/emnbsp;about China is at or near the top, and therefore motivates anbsp;lot of policy proposals—often seeded by lobbyists or special interest groups—that politicians might otherwise oppose. For example, we see supposed free marketers supporting protectionism and industrial policy not because they’ve seen the interventionist light but because the China’s growing economic and geopolitical power—both supposedly fueled by Chinese government industrial policy—is so serious that it demands we abandon, just this one time, the market to save it (or something), or that we accept dozens of ridiculous, irrelevant, and/or self‐serving amendments to “innovation” legislation because it’s the lone legislative vehicle for Congress tonbsp;emdo something/emnbsp;about China this year. (Both were on full display innbsp;a href=https://capitolism.thedispatch.com/p/the-endless-frontier-and-american target=_blanklast week’s newsletter/a.)/p
pSurely, some of Washington’s newfound attention toward China is warranted. Its economy has expanded rapidly since the late 1970s, as has its share of global economic output and trade. China is today the world’s largest manufacturing nation, with growing high‐tech and internet industries, and many nations’ largest trading partner. Its massive population (about 1.4 billion people, many of whom are just entering the global consumer class) also gives it economic heft beyond its per capita numbers, which are still well below the United States and many other Western nations.nbsp;/p
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pAnd then, of course, there’s China’s recent and troubling embrace of illiberalism and expansionism, coupled with a “wolf warrior” diplomacy that is sure to aggravate existing tensions and produce new ones—especially when Western companies and individuals embarrass themselves in trying to satisfy the Communist Party’s demands.nbsp;/p
pHowever, while China’s deepening authoritarianism, human rights abuses, and other bad behavior surely warrant criticism and attention, the view of China, and Chinese industrial policy, as an urgent economic threat to the United States—one justifying anbsp;broad rejection of the free markets and economic openness that made America great to begin with—is mostly misguided. And since it motivates so much of what goes on in Washington, it’s what we’ll dig into today./p
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pThe view that China is an urgent enough economic threat to justify anbsp;broad rejection of free markets is mostly misguided. /p
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pstrongWhat Fueled China’s Rise?/strong/p
pChina’s economic rise is undeniable and has caused many to assert that the country—fueled by its “state capitalism” model—will surpass the United States asnbsp;emthe/emnbsp;global economic hegemon in the next few decades. This speculation, however, suffers from two critical errors. First, “state capitalism” didn’t drive most of China’s past economic out‐performance. Instead, those gains came primarily from market‐based reforms that China started in 1978 (from anbsp;very low, communism‐induced baseline) and continued via its integration into the multilateral trading system—i.e., the World Trade Organization—in 2001 and the requisite structural and economic changes that said accession required. For example, anbsp;a href=https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.4.103 target=_blank2012 study/anbsp;by University of Toronto economist Xiaodong Zhu concluded that China’s growth was “driven by productivity growth rather than by capital investment,” thanks to “gradual and persistent institutional change and policy reforms that have reduced distortions and improved economic incentives.” (See also thisnbsp;a href=https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues8/index.htm target=_blankIMF study/a.) As Inbsp;a href=https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2020-07/PA-895-doi.pdf target=_blankwrote last year/a, moreover, many other economists have found that most of China’s improved export competitiveness stemmed from internal, freer market reforms—on property rights, privatization, price controls, trading rights, and import liberalization, for example—often in response to new WTO commitments./p
pChina’s past economic growth is also notable in what it didn’t feature: lots of industrial policy. As China expert Barry Naughton explained in his great new book,nbsp;ema href=https://dusselpeters.com/CECHIMEX/Naughton2021_Industrial_Policy_in_China_CECHIMEX.pdf target=_blankThe Rise of China’s Industrial Policy/a/em:/p
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p[T]here is anbsp;huge disconnect between the success that we attribute to the Chinese economy today and the orientation of Chinese policy today. China’s emergence as an economic and technological super‐power is due primarily to the policy package that it followed from 1978 through the first decade of the 21st century, that is, until about 2006–7. China’s policy package today—that is, the policies that started tentatively after 2005 but were fully in place by 2008–2010— are radically different. Because of this, it is anbsp;mistake to attribute China’s success to the policies China is currently following.nbsp;/p
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pBy contrast, Naughton agreed with the aforementioned economists—and many others—that the “driving force of industrial development” in China was “market‐oriented economic reform,” with the government primarily relying on market forces and minimizing direct interventions. Economic success was particularly tied to China’s WTO entry (see my 2020 paper for more). “How much of that success could be attributed to industrial policy and planning?” Naughton asks, “The answer is simple: none.”/p
pAs Naughton notes, the Chinese industrial policies that American critics today target began in 2006 but really intensified in size and scope after the 2008 global financial crisis. (Many China‐watchers believe that the GFC caused anbsp;sea‐change in Chinese economic thought regarding the weakness and instability of western‐style capitalism.) Today, Chinese industrial policy covers anbsp;wide range of government actions but prioritizes high technology and advanced manufacturing industries via tens of billions of dollars in direct and indirect government support./p
pstrongHas Chinese Industrial Policy Worked?/strong/p
pThe mere presence of government billions and past economic success, however, do not guarantee future success—thus, the second critical flaw in the China Threat thesis: assuming that they do.nbsp;/p
pSurely, China has had some industrial policy successes, particularly in itsnbsp;a href=blank target=_blankenergy sector/a, but it’s had plenty of failures too. Most notably, China has spent decades and countless billions of dollars trying to become anbsp;global leader in semiconductor production, but its domestic players are still, by most expert accounts,nbsp;a href=https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/lagging-but-motivated-the-state-of-chinas-semiconductor-industry/ target=_blankyears (if not decades)/anbsp;behind the world’s best producers and totallynbsp;a href=https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/China-s-progress-in-advanced-semiconductor-technology-slows target=_blankreliant/anbsp;on the United States and other countries for top‐end chipmaking equipment. China’s industry has alsonbsp;a href=https://www.npr.org/2021/03/25/980305760/a-cautionary-tale-for-chinas-ambitious-chipmakers target=_blanksuffered/anbsp;from numerous, high‐profile failures and bankruptcies, and China’s national champion, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), isnbsp;a href=https://ssrn.com/abstract=3441959 target=_blankdeveloping facilities/anbsp;to produce chips that “are five to six years behind the industry’s leading edge at 10 percent of the volume of the world’s leading firm.”nbsp;/p
pIndustrial policy likely shoulders much of the blame for the current state of the Chinese semiconductor industry, whichnbsp;a href=https://ssrn.com/abstract=3441959 target=_blankfeatures/anbsp;rampant misallocation of resources, ineffective implementation, corruption, and anbsp;significant shortage of human capital, as well as heavy reliance on well‐funded but uncompetitive state‐owned enterprises (SOEs). China will keep trying, of course, but future success is far from certain. As Christopher Thomas from the Brookings Institutionnbsp;a href=https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/lagging-but-motivated-the-state-of-chinas-semiconductor-industry/ target=_blankexplained/a, “most segments of China’s semiconductor industry remain behind its foreign competitors, and its efforts to catch up face major economic obstacles.” (It would be good, however, if U.S. immigration restrictions stopped helping the Chinese industry solve its human capital problems!)/p
pEven where Chinese industrial policy has developed anbsp;competitive industry, its efforts in electric vehicles (EVs) show that the costs can be astronomical, successes modest, and future, market‐based growth uncertain. Chinese EV subsidies, started in 2009, did support substantial growth in its domestic industry, but they cost nearlynbsp;em$60 billion/emnbsp;between 2009 and 2017 and “a href=https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-electric-vehicle-ev-industry/ target=_blanksprouted/anbsp;anbsp;litany of problems that made Beijing worried that it was replicating the mistakes in the traditional auto industry” (which had its own longstanding share of Chinese industrial policy struggles):/p
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pInstances of fraud and collusion were made public by anbsp;2016 government investigation. In several instances, manufacturers received subsidies for vehicles that existed only on paper or that were equipped with batteries that didn’t meet subsidy eligibility requirements. In some cases, vehicles were sold to companies related to the manufacturer so they could pocket the subsidies. …/p
pThe cost of subsidies may have been worthwhile if the irrational exuberance that accompanied this “let 100 EV firms bloom” period also led the way in technological superiority. Yet even as registered EV firms mushroomed to more than 400 by 2018, according to some estimates, only about 15% of them are actually manufacturing cars. The vast majority of these firms appears to have either not reached the production stage or have products of questionable quality./p
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pThe Chinese government quickly curtailed EV subsidies in 2019, but that caused EV sales to drop substantially—causing some to question whether the market was viable without all those subsidies. China also may have failed to produce anbsp;high quality EV “champion,” as Chinese companies still lag behind the world’s leaders and Tesla isnbsp;a href=https://www.businessinsider.com/why-china-loves-tesla-elon-musk-2020-5 target=_blankvenerated/anbsp;there./p
pSimilar Chinese industrial policy “successes” can be found in thenbsp;a href=https://barwick.economics.cornell.edu/Yr19_ChinaShipyard_BKZ.pdf target=_blankshipbuilding/a,nbsp;a href=https://twitter.com/scottlincicome/status/1215667373694431240?s=20 target=_blankcivil aircraft/a, and, as noted, automotive manufacturing industries. (Embarrassingnbsp;a href=https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2020/01/02/china-has-never-mastered-internal-combustion-engines target=_blankheadline/anbsp;innbsp;emThe Economist/emnbsp;just last year: “China has never mastered internal‐combustion engines.” Yikes.)nbsp;/p
pAnd these are just the direct costs. China’s industrial policies have also been shown to indirectly foment numerous problems proven to hinder stable, long‐term economic growth, including resource misallocation; corruption; investment bubbles; and overcapacity. Some may argue that these costs and distortions will eventually be worth it if supported Chinese industries someday thrive, but this ignores what may have been if China had pursued freer markets to begin with. At the very least, these struggles and their massive costs shouldnbsp;emat least/emnbsp;give us pause before trying to copy China’s industrial policy system (assuming we even could)./p
pstrongThen There Are the Systemic Issues/strong/p
pFinally, China faces broader, systemic challenges that call into question whether it will stay on the same economic trajectory for decades to come (anbsp;a href=https://apnews.com/article/f94e684add552594e534c5fbf6213b62 target=_blankclassic mistake/anbsp;in economic forecasting). For starters, China has major demographic headwinds that will only accelerate in the coming years. Despite relaxing its repressive and decades‐long family planning policy, China’s birth rate continues to fall, and itsnbsp;a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-says-its-population-rose-slightly-in-2020-11620698964?mod=djemalertNEWS target=_blankpopulation last year rose/anbsp;only to 1.41 billion from 1.40 billion in 2019, with individuals older than 60 now accounting for almost one‐fifth of the population.nbsp;/p
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pAn aging Chinanbsp;a href=https://www.prb.org/aging-and-health-in-china-what-can-we-learn-from-the-worlds-largest-population-of-older-people target=_blankcreates pressures/anbsp;on domestic consumption,nbsp;a href=https://twitter.com/scottlincicome/status/1399819454498971651?s=20 target=_blanklabor force participation/a, pension and health care systems, and overall economic growth. As one demography expert put it to thenbsp;ema href=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/china-census-births-fall.html?action=clickamp;module=RelatedLinksamp;pgtype=Article target=_blankNew York Times/a/em, “This is anbsp;long‐term time bomb.”/p
pChina could offset demographic concerns with rising productivity (the government is apparently uninterested in immigration), but this factor is also lagging—in part because of Chinese economic planning and industrial policy. According to anbsp;newnbsp;a href=https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2021/01/06/Peoples-Republic-of-China-2020-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-49992 target=_blankInternational Monetary Fund Report/a, China’s average productivity rate is only anbsp;third of that in advanced economies—including Japan, Germany, and the United States:/p
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pThis is not anbsp;new problem: According to anbsp;a href=https://eeas.europa.eu/archives/docs/china/docs/division_ecran/ecran_is103_paper_81_chinas_industrial_policy_jean-christophe_defraigne_en.pdf target=_blank2014 study/a, for example, Chinese Global 500 firms grew from three in 1995 to 89nbsp;in 2013, but compared unfavorably to their Western counterparts, with larger payrolls, less capital intensity (assets divided by number of employees), lower profitability, and less innovation./p
pIt’s also an open question as to whether China willnbsp;emever/emnbsp;catch more productive economies like the United States. Productivity growthnbsp;a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economic-recovery-belies-a-lingering-productivity-challenge-11610884800 target=_blankhas stagnated/anbsp;in recent years, with average annual growth dropping from 3.5 percent between 2007 and 2012 to only 0.6 percent from 2012 to 2017. As noted bynbsp;ema href=https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/01/02/chinas-industrial-policy-has-worked-better-than-critics-think target=_blankThe Economist/a/emnbsp;last year, growth in total factor productivity is now only anbsp;third of what it was before the Great Recession, anbsp;much sharper decline than other countries and just as China was spending billions to create anbsp;global semiconductor leader:/p
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pIndeed, thenbsp;emWall Street Journalnbsp;/ema href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economic-recovery-belies-a-lingering-productivity-challenge-11610884800 target=_blankexplains/anbsp;that much of China’s productivity slowdown is attributable to the government’s “massive stimulus program to prop up economic growth” after the global financial crisis and has further deteriorated as industrial planning ramped up under President Xi Jinping. Other drags on productivity include recent government efforts to control private businesses andnbsp;a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/xi-jinpings-eager-to-please-minions-snarl-his-china-plans-11615141195?mod=hp_featst_pos3 target=_blankgrowing bureaucratization/a, which has confounded central government efforts to implement economic and social reforms that might boost national productivity./p
pInefficient state‐owned enterprises are also anbsp;significant cause of China’s productivity issues, as thenbsp;emJournalnbsp;/em(citing the above IMF report) notes:nbsp;/p
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pDespite constituting anbsp;a href=https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/has-china-given-state-owned-enterprise-reform target=_blanksmaller share/anbsp;of China’s economy today as compared to decades ago, “SOEs are dominant in key industries, including energy, aviation, finance, telecoms and transportation” andnbsp;a href=https://www.bruegel.org/2021/02/chinas-state-owned-enterprises-and-competitive-neutrality/ target=_blankremain favored/anbsp;by government policy. Yet their productivity lags far behind privately owned counterparts, as does theirnbsp;a href=https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2021-05/EPB-4-2021.pdf target=_blankinnovation:/anbsp;“as judged by the numbers of patents granted for every unit of investment in Ramp;D, private companies in China are three times more efficient than are state‐owned enterprises.” Unfortunately, Chinese SOEs’ economic prominence appears to be growing, with the governmentnbsp;a href=https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3092339/china-approves-plan-boost-prominence-state-firms-despite target=_blankincreasingly favoring these entities/anbsp;whilenbsp;a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-financial-regulators-summon-big-tech-firms-11619698257 target=_blankcracking down/anbsp;on private firms and entrepreneurs, especially in thenbsp;a href=https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/China-People-s-Congress/China-antitrust-probes-doubled-last-year-in-Big-Tech-crackdown target=_blanktech sector/a./p
pFinally, China faces anbsp;a href=https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/weekly/2021/vw202104_3/ target=_blankgrowing debt burden/anbsp;that will, unless tamed, weigh on future growth. China’s debt‐to‐GDP ratio reached approximately 280 percent in 2020 (295 percent if foreign debt is included), the majority of which is in the form of corporate bank loans.nbsp;/p
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pHowever, China’s banks—long considered tools of Chinese industrial policy (via, for example, low‐interest loans to preferred industries)—are showing signs of strain. In 2020, Chinese banks had anbsp;a href=https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-debt-crunch/Bad-debt-swells-22-at-China-s-big-banks-despite-recovery target=_blankrecord high of $466.9 billion/anbsp;in non‐performing assets—a number that is expected to continue rising in the future. According to thenbsp;a href=https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/weekly/2021/vw202104_3/ target=_blankBank of Finland/anbsp;(BOFIT), moreover, “China was already engaged in efforts to bail out small and medium‐sized banks before covid‐19 struck,” and stress tests released by People’s Bank of China in November showed that 10 of 30 banks—including all of China’s “systemically critical banks” would fail “even under the mildest stress scenario.” Corporate bond markets are alsonbsp;a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-23/china-braces-for-1-3-trillion-maturity-wall-as-defaults-surge target=_blankstrained/a./p
pChinese government debt is today probably manageable (approximately 70 percent of GDP), but isnbsp;a href=https://www.pionline.com/article/20180205/ONLINE/180209901/china-s-next-debt-bomb-is-an-aging-population target=_blankexpected/anbsp;to expand significantly in the coming years as the government funds anbsp;social safety net for its aging population. (Certain Chinese industrial policy projects, such asnbsp;a href=https://www.cato.org/blog/chinas-high-speed-debt-trap target=_blankhigh‐speed rail/a, also contribute to China’s growing public debt burden.) As the BOFIT analysis put it, “China’s piling on of debt has long raised concerns among observers of the Chinese economy because rapid descents into indebtedness in other countries have typically led to major economic collapse or severe banking crises.” While anbsp;crisis seems unlikely in the near term, such concerns are almost certain to weigh on future growth and other government initiatives./p
pstrongSumming It All Up/strong/p
pCombined, these facts rebut the all‐too‐common perception in the United States that China is an unstoppable economic juggernaut that—fueled by industrial policy and heavy state planning—will inevitably overtake the United States unless we adopt similar policies here. It all harkens back to anbsp;similar bout of pessimism the last time the United States was allegedly destined to be overtaken by an upstart Asian nation:/p
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blockquote class=twitter-tweetp lang=en dir=ltrmy thanks to everyone who recommended other 1980s amp;nbsp;1990s Japan‐bashing books amp; a href=https://twitter.com/hashtag/industrialpolicy?src=hashamp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw#industrialpolicy/a apocalyptic volumes. I’ve started building anbsp;slide depicting them all together. Feel free to suggest others Inbsp;can add. It’s worth documenting this history before we repeat it. a href=https://t.co/ciQgVEG8U3pic.twitter.com/ciQgVEG8U3/a/p— Adam Thierer (@AdamThierer) a href=https://twitter.com/AdamThierer/status/1399793998198419460?ref_src=twsrc%5EtfwJune 1, 2021/a/blockquote
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pSurely, there are differences between Japan then and China now, but there are also many similarities—especially in Washington. Indeed, many of the same folks preaching American decline today did so 30nbsp;years ago too. It’s more disappointing, however, to see such talk from Republicans who—so they say—believe in American exceptionalism and our free market system./p
pAnd, sure, it’s possible that China can overcome the above economic headwinds and several others (a href=https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/china-rise-or-demise#increasing-illiberalism target=_blankfor example/a, environmental degradation, overseas project failures, restive populations, alienation of foreign firms, and increasing illiberalism)—it’s undeniably anbsp;large economy with anbsp;huge and increasingly educated population. But China’s economic challenges, caused in no small part by its relatively recent embrace of illiberalism and interventionism, are quite real, and they argue strongly against radical changes to U.S. economic policy as anbsp;last‐ditch effort to counter an inevitable global hegemon./p
pThose changes should be considered on the merits, not out of an overwrought fear of the “China Threat.”nbsp;/p
pstrongChart of the Week/strong/p
p(a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-manufacturers-blame-tariffs-for-swelling-inflation-11622367001?mod=mktw target=_blanksource/a)/p
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pstrongBonus Chart of the Week/strong/p
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pstrongThe Links/strong/p
pa href=https://twitter.com/scottlincicome/status/1398028905043402755?s=20 target=_blankCato’s hiring anbsp;trade economist/a/p
pa href=https://voxeu.org/article/why-shareholder-capitalism-benefits-wider-society target=_blank“Why shareholder capitalism benefits wider society”/a/p
pa href=https://twitter.com/GaryWinslett/status/1398321279099453443?s=20 target=_blankMore protectionist nonsense added to the Endless Frontier Act/a/p
pa href=https://t.co/us9eoOVi1u?amp=1 target=_blankStill anbsp;/aema href=https://t.co/us9eoOVi1u?amp=1 target=_blanklot/a/ema href=https://t.co/us9eoOVi1u?amp=1 target=_blanknbsp;of people collecting supplemental unemployment benefits/a/p
pa href=https://t.co/ilusKsxzId?amp=1 target=_blankIt’s salad days for teen workers/a/p
pa href=https://t.co/sn0GiVecLi?amp=1 target=_blankThe CDC has really botched outdoor mask guidance/a/p
pa href=https://t.co/OUo5f423vX?amp=1 target=_blankU.K. “industrial policy failure”/a/p
pa href=https://t.co/1OAjdMON1h?amp=1 target=_blankBiden budget breakdown/a/p
pa href=https://t.co/ggTr5nmwPV?amp=1 target=_blankOnce anbsp;dying textile town, Greenville, S.C., is booming/a/p
pa href=https://t.co/Dmo3rreA97?amp=1 target=_blankMassachusetts banned surge pricing, and you’ll never guess what happened next/a/p
pa href=https://t.co/VpSjTzrsyy?amp=1 target=_blankTeslas made and sold in Texas may have to be shipped out of state and shipped back to customers/a/p
pa href=https://t.co/u1LyOpyuTR?amp=1 target=_blankNew study on the politicization of American Rescue Plan funds/a/p
pa href=https://t.co/hLFXk0yC21?amp=1 target=_blankCompanies offering prizes for vaccinated customers/anbsp;(a href=https://t.co/t0kNllhVxi?amp=1 target=_blankmore/a) (a href=https://t.co/SG3msg3SJh?amp=1 target=_blankmore/a) (a href=https://t.co/cSsuNHzswI?amp=1 target=_blankmore/a)/p
pa href=https://t.co/LMGmfSdyZX?amp=1 target=_blankLumber coming in from Europe is clogging anbsp;Florida port/a/p
pa href=https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1398647268258025473?s=20 target=_blankJason Furman on economists’ quiet criticism of the American Rescue Plan/a/p
pa href=https://t.co/kamF6y031f?amp=1 target=_blankOops/a/p
pa href=https://t.co/2FIke3zKCf?amp=1 target=_blankAmerica is healing: Costco is bringing back free samples/a/p
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