New Mexico: What to expect on election night

Democrats have consolidated control over all three branches of state government since Lujan Grisham succeeded a termed-out Republican governor, including commanding majorities in the Legislature. Joe Biden won the state by 11 percentage points in 2020, but Republicans at the same time unseated a one-term Democratic congresswoman in a district along the U.S. border with Mexico.

New Mexico’s top race pits incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham against former network television meteorologist Mark Ronchetti. Ronchetti ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2020 while coming within 6 percentage points of an experienced rival from a Democratic political dynasty. Lujan Grisham, a former congresswoman, won 57% of the vote for governor in 2018 — a margin of 14 percentage points. Republicans have poured money into the governor’s race in the final months of 2022 campaigning, amid dueling attack ads from independent political committees.

Three first-term congresswomen are seeking reelection as New Mexico’s House delegation in newly redrawn districts that divvy up the politically conservative southeastern corner of the state — a premier U.S. production zone for petroleum. Democratic incumbents are viewed as safe in the state’s central and northern districts.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell is running on a conservative platform of strict border security and unfettered support for the oil industry against Democratic nominee Gabe Vasquez and his campaign for more equitable access to economic opportunity, a humanitarian approach to immigration and greater accountability for climate change. The district stretches from the U.S. border with Mexico across desert oilfields and portions of Albuquerque.

In an open race for attorney general, Democrats are backing the well-known district attorney from the state’s...