We did a White Sox offseason plan last week on the Pinwheels And Ivy Podcast, featuring @SouthsideZo‘s ideas. Now, it’s my turn to spend Tom Ricketts’ money and make the Cubs competitive ASAP. My budget for this exercise is $205 million, which is still $28 million below the first luxury tax threshold.

Guaranteed Money for 2023 (AAV)

Marcus Stroman – $23,666,667 million
Jason Heyward – $23 million
Kyle Hendricks – $13.875 million
Seiya Suzuki – $17 million
Yan Gomes – $6.5 million
David Bote – $3 million

Total: $87,041,667 million

Arbitration Eligible Players

Using MLB Trade Rumors’ projected arbitration salaries.

Ian Happ – $10.6 million 
Steven Brault – non-tender
Franmil Reyes – non-tender
Rowan Wick – non-tender
Alec Mills – non-tender
Brad Wieck – non-tender
Nico Hoerner – $2.2 million
Codi Heuer – $800K
Nick Madrigal – $1.1 million
Rafael Ortega – non-tender

Total: $14.7 million

Cubs Free Agents Heading Into Offseason

Willson Contreras
Wade Miley
Drew Smyly
Sean Newcomb
Michael Hermosillo
Jackson Frazier

Offer qualifying offer to Willson Contreras. He declines and the Cubs get a comp pick in next year’s draft. Explore short-term deal with Drew Smyly.

Adios to Miley, Newcomb, Hermosillo and Frazier.

Estimated Salaries Pre-Arb, Other Costs

We’re using FanGraphs here to factor in the salaries of pre-arb players, minor leaguers on the 40-man roster and other costs.

Estimated salaries for pre-arb/non-guaranteed contracts – $11.52 million
Estimated salaries for 40-man roster players in the minors – $2.5 million
Estimated player benefits to be paid – $16.5 million
Payment into $50 million pre-arb bonus pool – 1,666,667
Money owed to Jonathan Villar – $1.5 million
Money owed to Padres (Yu Darvish) – $1 million
Buyout for Drew Smyly – $1 million

Total: $35,686,667 million

CBT payroll heading into free agency: $137,428,334.

The luxury tax thresholds for 2023 are:
$233 million
$253 million
$273 million
$293 million 

Penalties increase after passing each threshold. The Cubs did not surpass the luxury tax in 2022. So, that leaves us $67,571,666 to spend before going over the $205 million self-imposed luxury tax budget. Let’s get to it!

40-Man Roster

Pitchers

Marcus Stroman
Justin Steele
Keegan Thompson
Hayden Wesneski
Kyle Hendricks
Adrian Sampson
Adbert Alzolay
Mark Lieter Jr.
Michael Rucker
Brandon Hughes
Eric Uelmen
Jeremiah Estrada
Manny Rodriguez
Codi Heuer
Caleb Kilian
Brailyn Marquez
Ethan Roberts

Catchers

Miguel Amaya
Yan Gomes

Infielders

P.J. Higgins
Nico Hoerner
Nick Madrigal
Zack McKinstry
Estaban Quiroz
Alfonso Rivas
Patrick Wisdom
Jared Young

Outfielders 

Alexander Canario
Ian Happ
Chistopher Morel
Seiya Suzuki
Nelson Velazquez

There are guys who are currently on the 40-man roster that I didn’t list. Several pitchers, who I think will be released, but the most notable absence is David Bote. I just don’t see a good fit on the roster with him anymore. The Cubs still owe him guaranteed money, but like Heyward, I don’t believe there’s any room for Bote to take up a spot right now. Also, the list is imperfect because a few others like Canario will go back on the injured list and not take up a roster spot, while a couple minor leaguers will be added later in the offseason.

OK, finally, let’s get to the free agents.

Cubs Free Agent Signings

Kodai Senga – 4 years, $60 million + 5th year option 

Kodai Senga’s contract projections have been fairly modest, ranging from $13 million to $15 million per year. We’ll know more about the Japanese pitcher’s contract demands as the offseason passes, but the initial projection from is five years for $75 million. That’s pretty much my deal for Senga, but I’ll make that fifth year an option. Maybe include some incentives for innings pitched to entice the right-hander. Senga just seems like exactly what the Cubs are looking for in early free agency. A solid starting pitcher, who will not cost the team a draft pick and unlike the Suzuki signing last offseason the Cubs do not have to pay a posting fee to Senga’s previous team in Japan. And hey, Suzuki is already telling Senga good things about the Cubs.

$15 million AAV

José Abreu – 2 years, $32 million

I’m looking forward to see how Matt Mervis handles MLB pitching after he obliterated the minor leagues in 2022. Mervis does have some holes in his swing according to scouts, so I would prefer a safety blanket at first base. That’s where José Abreu comes into play. He might be getting up there in years, but the veteran first baseman is still producing at the plate. Abreu won’t completely get in Mervis’ way either because the Cubs could also use a DH.

$16 million AAV

Craig Kimbrel – 1 year, $5 million  + incentives 

Bring Craig Kimbrel back and have the Cubs fix him. At this point the Cubs don’t have anyone to take the reins as the closer and at the same time the organization has a good track record of signing veteran relievers and getting the most out of them.

$5 milion AAV

Brad Hand – 1 year, $7 million + incentives 

Brad Hand is a left-handed reliever, who has had experience closing out games with Cleveland and Washington. He’s coming off a good year with the Phillies and right now the Cubs don’t have many options from the left side to use out of the bullpen.

My only caveat here is that I would sign ONE of Kimbrel or Hand to make the closer at the start of the season and then sign another veteran reliever.

$7 million AAV

Omar Narváez – 2 years, $10 million 

The Cubs need someone else to pair with Yan Gomes and Omar Narváez might be the right guy. He’s solid behind the plate and despite the bad year offensively with the Brewers in 2022, Narváez has been fairly consistent throughout his career at the plate, which includes a 106 OPS+ against right-handed pitchers for the lefty-hitting catcher.

$5 million AAV

Alex Colomé – 1 year, $2 million

I’m looking at Alex Colomé as the ideal low risk, high reward type of signing. It shouldn’t cost much to sign the 33-year-old after his two down seasons with the Twins and Rockies. If the Cubs believe they can tweak something in mechanics or change something with his pitches, then Colomé has the potential to be a guy they can count on late in games. The righty has a career 3.34 ERA and 159 saves.

$2 million AAV

Offseason Cubs Trades

I’ve only signed one free agent starting pitcher and that’s because I’m trading for another legitimate arm to put in the rotation.

Keegan Thompson, Nick Madrigal, Nelson Velazquez for Pablo López

Shoutout to Greg Zumach, who I got this idea from. His trade proposal for Pablo López of the Marlins is Keegan Thompson, Christopher Morel and outfield prospect Yohendrick Pinango. I’ve kept Thompson in my offer, but replaced Morel with Madrigal and Pinango with Velazquez. The Marlins were reportedly asking for Gleyber Torres from the Yankees back in the summer for Lopez, but New York moved on from those talks. Is this a light package? Maybe, but maybe the Marlins buy Madrigals’s contact skills, which have led to positive results when he’s been healthy. And hey, Madrigal still is under team control with four years of arbitration before he becomes a free agent.

López is 27-years-old and has two years left of arbitration. His projected salary for 2023 is about $6.3 million. So, take that total and subtract Madrigal’s $1.1 million, Thompson’s and Velazquez’s league minimum ($720K each) for an added payroll of almost $4 million.

$3.76 million AAV

Trade pitching prospect for Twins Outfielder Max Kepler

I am terrible at coming up with viable trade packages. I admire anyone who attempts this practice. This is the best I can come up with when it comes to trading for Max Kepler. It’s vague because I think the Twins won’t be asking for much and the Cubs certainly have plenty of pitching depth to trade from. Kepler had his breakout season in 2019, but it’s been shaky ever since. In 2022, the left-handed hitter only mustered up a .666 OPS. Maybe get the Twins to cover some of the $8.5 million owed to him in 2023.

The Cubs can give Kepler center field and it’s basically a one-year, prove it deal as the Cubs have PCA and a few others waiting down in the minors. Or will they?!?!?!

$4 million AAV

Trade Pete Crow-Armstrong, Patrick Wisdom + Pitching Prospect for Rafael Devers

I’m using that one website that where you can pretty much make any trade you want, the Trade Simulator. In my plan I didn’t sign one of the top shortstops, so we’re going to pivot to 26-year-old Rafael Devers. He’s in his final year of arbitration and as of Thursday it doesn’t sound like negotiations are going well between the third baseman and the Red Sox. And obviously if you’re trading for Devers, then you’re doing it with the intention of immediately working out an extension. Devers’ estimated salary for 2023 is $16.9 million.

$16 million AAV

2023 Cubs Starting Rotation

Marcus Stroman
Pablo Lopez
Kodai Senga
Justin Steele
Kyle Hendricks/Hayden Wesneski 

2023 Cubs Lineup

C – Gomes/Narvaez
1B – Abreu
2B – Morel
3B – Devers
SS – Hoerner
LF – Happ
CF – Kepler
RF – Suzuki
DH – Mervis 

2023 Cubs Opening Day CBT Payroll: $204,188,334

In my original plan I gave myself more room to spend, setting the first tier of the luxury tax as my limit. The biggest change from that plan to this one was there wasn’t a trade for Devers. Instead, I signed Carlos Correa to an eight-year, $256 million contract. That would have put my payroll at $220 million at the start of the 2023 season.

Oh and by the way, after 2023, Heyward’s $23 million and Hendricks’ $13.875 million comes off the books. The Cubs could also have more flexibility if Stroman opts out. I can’t say this enough, there is no reason the Cubs can’t make big moves THIS offseason.

So, what do you think? I already know the trade ideas are going to get roasted. Give it to me and let me know what moves you want to see the Cubs make this offseason.

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