2023 NL East Positional Rankings: Closer
A closer can make or break a team, and heading into 2023, the NL East is loaded with talent. The Phillies spent their offseason retooling their bullpen, adding two legit arms with closing experience, the Braves will call upon a new face with the departure of Kenley Jansen, and the Mets will call upon Edwin […]
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Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
A closer can make or break a team, and heading into 2023, the NL East is loaded with talent. The Phillies spent their offseason retooling their bullpen, adding two legit arms with closing experience, the Braves will call upon a new face with the departure of Kenley Jansen, and the Mets will call upon Edwin Díaz to replicate his dominant 2022 season. The division will be tight, and the ninth-inning guys may decide the division. Before the 2023 season begins, MMO has ranked the top five closers/top bullpen men in the NL East.
No. 5 – Kyle Finnegan
While the Nationals had a season to forget in 2022, Kyle Finnegan was one of the few players who performed well. He posted a 3.51 ERA, 9.5 SO/9, and 112 ERA+ in 66 2/3 innings, locking down the eighth and ninth innings for the majority of the season.
Finnegan’s success lies in his 97 mph sinker, which he throws 78.8% of the time. The pitch is overpowering, as it ranks in the 93rd percentile for fastball velocity, leading batters to record a .217 batting average and a .394 slugging percentage against it.
Unfortunately for Finnegan, his issue is also his sinker, as he relied heavily on the pitch in 2022, leading to a lack of deception. He threw his slider and split-finger a combined 21.2% of the time, leading batters to sit on his sinker. As a result, Finnegan ranked in the 10th percentile for average exit velocity, 11% percentile for hard hit percentage, and 17th percentile for chase rate. To make matters worse, his sinker had minimal movement and ranked in the 12th percentile in fastball spin.
No. 4 – Dylan Floro
Dylan Floro had another under-the-radar year for the Marlins in 2022. He posted a 3.02 ERA, 1.174 WHIP, and 135 ERA+ in 53 2/3 innings. The 31-year-old impressively also held batters in check, holding them to four home runs and a .388 slugging percentage last season.
The advanced numbers also showed that Floro was great at inducing soft contact. He finished in the 88th percentile for hard hit percentage, 75th percentile for average exit velocity and 84th percentile for barrel percentage. The lack of hard contact can also be traced to Floro’s ability to keep the ball on the ground, as he finished the season with a 43.9% ground-ball rate and 1.8% home run rate.
The separating pitch for Floro, however, was his slider in 2022. While it only comes in at 84.1 mph and has an 1891 spin rate, batters couldn’t pick up the pitch and whiffed 40.1% of the time. Impressively, Floro held batters to a .333 slugging percentage against the slider and only gave up one extra-base in 189 tries.
No. 3 – Seranthony Domínguez/Craig Kimbrel/Gregory Soto
Picking a closer for the Phillies is no easy task. As of now, they have three closers with MLB experience and all have equally great stuff. To make matters more difficult, the Phillies haven’t awarded any of them the closer’s role.
Seranthony Domínguez could win the role out of spring training. He’s had trouble staying healthy in his young career, but had a promising 2022, posting a 3.00 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 10.8 SO/9, and 136 ERA+ in 51 innings.
Gregory Soto and Craig Kimbrel both are threats to winning the closer role in spring training as well. The two of them joined the Phillies in the off-season and have prior experience in the ninth inning. Soto saved 30 games for the Tigers in 2022, posting a 3.28 ERA, 9 SO/9, and 116 ERA+ in 60 1/3 innings. Similarly, Kimbrel saved 22 games for the Dodgers last season, posting a 3.75 ERA, 10.8 SO/9, and 112 ERA+ in 60 innings.
However, the three of them all had similar issues last season. Kimbrel, Soto, and Domínguez all allowed consistent hard contact, with all three of them finishing in the 13th percentile or lower for hard hit percentage and 10th percentile or lower for average exit velocity. The three closers also all struggled with walks, finishing in the 13th percentile or lower for walk rate.
No matter who comes out on top, the ranking wouldn’t change. The Phillies’ closers are all elite strikeout pitchers, who give up their fair share of hard contact and walk too many batters. Based on their previous seasons, Kimbrel or Domínguez will most likely win the closer’s role. Soto struggled the most out of the three, landing in the bottom 1% of the league for exit velocity and the 2nd percentile for BB%.
No. 2 – Raisel Iglesias
Raisel Iglesias has the potential to be an X-factor for the Braves in the 2023 season. He was dominant after being traded to Atlanta and recorded a 0.34 ERA, 0.835 WHIP, and 10.3 SO/9 in 26 1/3 innings.
For 2023, he’ll have to replicate his stellar numbers in the ninth inning, since Kenley Jansen signed with the Red Sox. While Jansen wasn’t as dominant as Iglesias, he locked down the ninth for the Braves, leading the NL with 41 saves.
Iglesias has the potential to be better in the ninth, however, for the Braves. Not only were his numbers for the season great, but his advanced metrics were absurd. Iglesias finished in the 92nd percentile for strikeout percentage, 82nd percentile for walk rate, and 93rd percentile for whiff percentage.
The two pitches responsible for Iglesias’s success were his slider and change-up. Batters whiffed over 42% against both pitches, resulting in 45 of his 78 strikeouts. When batters did make contact against the two pitches, it wasn’t with authority, as Iglesias held batters to an average exit velocity of under 85 mph.
No. 1 – Edwin Díaz
Queue Timmy Trumpet everybody, Díaz is coming in as the number one closer on this list!
Díaz had a historically great season in 2022 with the Mets. He posted a 1.31 ERA, 0.90 FIP, 0.839 WHIP, and 17.1 SO/9 in 62 innings. For a consecutive season, Díaz recorded 0.4 HR/9, putting to bed his problem with the long ball.
Díaz’s return to dominance can be attributed to his slider, which was the pitch that made him great in 2018 with the Mariners. Batters hit .114 and slugged .134 against the pitch, while also whiffing 54.7% of the time. The confidence in the slider was key as well, resulting in Díaz throwing the slider 58.1% of the time and recording a 38.1 PutAway%.
With the resurgence of his slider and electric fastball, Díaz lit up his baseball-savant page up red. He finished in the 96th percentile for average exit velocity, 93rd percentile for barrel percentage, 99th percentile for fastball velocity, and 97th percentile for chase rate. If that didn’t impress, Díaz also finished in the 100th percentile K% and Whiff%.
Díaz wasn’t just the best closer in the NL East in 2022 but in the entire sport. He was awarded the NL Reliever of the Year award for 2022, while also finishing ninth in Cy Young voting and 16th in MVP voting. Heading into 2023, Díaz is indisputably the best closer in MLB.
The post 2023 NL East Positional Rankings: Closer first appeared on Metsmerized Online.