Emmy Experts Typing: To make or to not make last-second prediction changes?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we consider some last-minute tweaks to our nominations predictions before Wednesday’s announcement.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We made our “final” Emmy nominations predictions earlier this week, but when it comes to speculating (in a comic mode, in a humorous vein), is anything really final? I’d argue no, which is why we’re back to typing about our last-ditch picks. We were really in lockstep about many of our predictions, which feels right in a year where there are a number of sure bets in each category followed by a final scrum for the last spot or two. So let’s go to Best Drama Actress first which has me throwing my hands in the air like I just don’t care. The top four feels pretty stable: Sarah Snook, Bella Ramsey, Melanie Lynskey and Imelda Staunton. We both had Sharon Horgan in the fifth position owing to our similar bet that “Bad Sisters” should get in as a drama series nominee. I originally had Keri Russell too because “The Diplomat” was a big hit for Netflix. But a funny thing is that I don’t remember the last time anyone talked about that show and Russell doesn’t feel like a nominee who would have a lot of passion behind her. So on the fly, I went back to Elisabeth Moss for “The Handmaid’s Tale,” a contender many here at Gold Derby had pegged for a spot already. I feel like maybe Emmy voters will feel the same way? Faced with a lot of solid choices that don’t stand out above the rest, maybe Moss gets back in here because she’s an ol’ reliable. But if Moss gets in, then maybe I should go harder on “Handmaid’s Tale” overall in the top categories. Best Drama Series is light on options in the back of the field — I’ve got “Bad Sisters” and “Andor” in my seventh and eighth spots — and I’m wondering if I should slip the former winner in because why not? You’re higher on “Andor” than I am, so if “Handmaid’s Tale” made it back in there, what show might fall by the wayside. And while you educate me on that question, what “final” picks are you considering revising?

joyceeng: If you’re gonna drop something, I would not do “Andor.” You remain a reluctant believer, but it’s proven over and over again it’s a viewer and industry fave. It’s by far the preferred “Star Wars” series of the cycle and was nominated at PGA and WGA (for drama and new series) and won ACE, none of which “House of the Dragon,” which remains ahead of it in the odds, hit. It also made PGA over “The Crown,” which is ahead of it as well, but at least that’s understandable since it’s a former sweeper. In my book, “Andor” is fifth because there’s more passion and excitement for it than there ostensibly is for “The Crown’s” underwhelming fifth season and “Yellowjackets'” bumpy second outing. But I think those two are safe just because there’s no consensus over the eighth spot and nothing else has truly announced itself as a major contender. Tl;dr: I’d drop “Bad Sisters” if you want “Handmaid’s” in. I don’t necessarily think the show needs to be nominated for Moss to make it. They’re different categories with different competition and the actress race is more open. I replaced Russell with Juliette Lewis, which also feels wrong in some ways. But I’m going by the same logic that they might default to familiarity (in this case, “Yellowjackets”) for one of those two spots. However, the more I overthink this, Christine Baranski is arguably the platonic ideal of that: a six-time nominee for “The Good Wife” but zero-time nominee for “The Good Fight” who could get in on passion without her show. She’s has the performance, the raves and the “last chance” narrative if you subscribe to that at all. Interestingly enough, she was snubbed for the last season of “The Good Wife” in 2016, the last time this exact same voting system with the restricted ballot was in effect. I’m not sure if I can go there with Baranski, though, so I guess I’ll keep Lewis? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ As you know, Best Comedy Supporting Actor is a nightmare for me (for all of us, I guess) with the loss of the eighth spot. I added Phil Dunster over Harrison Ford this week to go with his “Ted Lasso” bromance Brett Goldstein, Tyler James Williams, Anthony Carrigan, Henry Winkler, Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Tony Shalhoub. If you go by the odds, Moss-Bachrach is the shakiest in seventh place, but as an early adopter of the idea of “Emmy nominee Ebon Moss-Bachrach” — way before Season 2 of “The Bear” made people bandwagon — I feel like I cannot drop him and must see this pick through. We’ve discussed a possible Shalhoub snub, which you predicted for a hot second when we thought there’d be eight slots, but could someone else be shockingly excluded for Dunster and Ford?

SEE Experts slugfest: Our final 2023 Emmy nominations predictions

Christopher Rosen: I should probably drop Shalhoub just because I was an extremely early adopter of this potential “snub,” and I can really make a case of his non-nomination. With only seven slots and a restricted ballot, does anyone still have that elusive passion for this former winner? I kinda think no! But I’m also not convinced Ford would get the spot were Shalhoub to miss, if only because I could also make the case that someone like Nick Mohammed might have a deep well of academy support once again. But if you’re not dropping Shalhoub and you want Dunster and Ford on the list (Moss-Bacharach not only feels like a lock to get nominated at this point, if he is among the nominees he probably will win), I feel like you might have to pick between your “Barry” beloveds? This is maybe completely wrong (wouldn’t be the first time), but I don’t get the sense the final season was a total slam dunk in the discourse. That written: I’m sticking with Anthony Carrigan and Henry Winkler. What other last-gasp tweaks are you considering? Here’s one of mine from left field and coated in re-recency bias: I watched some of “Only Murders in the Building” Season 2 before starting on the Season 3 screeners this week and I feel like we (me) all forgot how funny Tina Fey was last year? Any chance she could surprise in what looks like a wide-open guest actress category?

joyceeng: I think we all take Fey for granted on that show. Her reaction to the slo-mo and Steve Martin cutting the tomato was a full LOL. But she wasn’t even predicted for a nomination last year and it feels like that vibe has carried over into Season 2, which has been quieter, campaign-wise, than Season 1. I had the opposite reaction when I watched the screeners and was compelled to drop Shirley MacLaine, who was excellent last season but has not inspired a ton of chatter a year later. But the guest categories are the most prone to name-checks, so MacLaine is absolutely plausible. I remain the least confident in, well, all the limited categories. We both slotted in Liev Schreiber this week and also have “A Small Light” in series. I have triple “Beef” in supporting actress. You’re doubling up on “The English” in lead while I’ve dumped Emily Blunt but might rotate her back in at Rachel Weisz‘s expense. You can convince me to change multiple picks in every category here.

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Christopher Rosen: It’s appropriate that Blunt is a top contender in the limited series race because the whole thing reminds me of her best line in “The Devil Wears Prada”: “That, I can’t even talk about.” I feel like anyone can get nominated there or no one and I wouldn’t even bat an eye. You’ve got the triple “Beef” in supporting actress but if it got shut out, would that be a surprise? Maybe? I feel like that’s the field I’m going to touch least in the final days before nominations. But I take solace in knowing we’re all in the same unknowable boat. I’ll leave you with the last word: What is your best hopediction for Wednesday?

joyceeng: Only if they were shut out for the immovable object that is the block of Olivia Colman, Lena Headey and Cherry Jones in the odds. I don’t have a lot of hopedictions unless you count, like, Sarah Goldberg. There’s Tom Pelphrey, but that category is such a free-for-all that everyone is a “why not me?” You are hopedicting someone I would love to see nominated: Betty Gilpin. I am keeping my expectations low for “Mrs. Davis” so I won’t be disappointed, but the Emmys would earn their wings from me if they nominate it across the board.

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