Why Barbenheimer is the most important weekend for the domestic box office in years

The movie industry is about to take a long, deep breath this weekend as the “Barbenheimer” phenomena unfolds as either a breakthrough moment for the way audiences engage with movies or just an internet fad proven null and void by those not extremely online.

If you’re not familiar, “Barbenheimer” is all at once a moviegoing strategy and an internet meme sparked by two films releasing on the same day: Greta Gerwig’s Barbie film starring Margot Robbie and Christopher Nolan’s J. Robert Oppenheimer biopic Oppenheimer.

It’s a rare occurrence in the film industry: a simple act of theatrical counterprogramming turned into a major cultural moment as two beloved filmmakers release two wildly divergent films simultaneously to widespread interest in both (and both coming out on the same day).

Both films have debuted to strong reviews and could court Oscar buzz later this year once awards season really gets going. Gerwig’s film understandably figures to best Nolan’s at the box office in a head-to-head look, but it’s how they’ll compliment each other that will tell the story.

Barbenheimer has garnered theatrical interest only matched by Top Gun: Maverick and Spider-Man: No Way Home in the post-COVID box office, and neither of these films are sequels to any pre-existing properties. While Barbie is an established doll and J. Robert Oppenheimer a towering figure in history, both of their films operate as standalone projects crafted by some of the best (and most recognizable) directors working in the studio system.

The fact that audiences are so interested in the “Barbenheimer” trend gives movie studios the kind of audience-driven viral marketing that they couldn’t even possibly dream up. Rival studios are not geared to court people to see opposing films, but rising tides figure to lift all boats this weekend.

Ask a friend and see if they’re planning on doing a “Barbenheimer” double feature this weekend; don’t be surprised if their tickets are already booked. Globally, the films are expected to bring in $260 million cumulatively this weekend, and AMC has reported that 40,000 of its Stubs members have booked both films for a long trip to the movies.

While a film starring a movie star like Margot Robbie as a beloved childhood icon making around $100 million at the box office might not be a major shock, a three-hour historical epic doing $50 million in the same weekend is (even if Nolan’s name is attached). Tracking on both films is exponentially high, further supporting the idea that the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon is much more than just internet fluff.

Word-of-month will also be a strong factor for both films as “Barbenheimer” is unlikely to fade away after a weekend with reception for both films as strong as it is.

Studios can’t really manufacture another moment like this for a variety of reasons, two major ones being the continued rivalry of box office receipts and the inability to swell up a grassroots effort among moviegoers. However, studios can veer away from pumping out way too many superhero films and playing into tired trends and well-worn franchises that need to end much sooner than they have (i.e., Disney live-action remakes).

It’s the comic book movie platform that really grabs your attention. While superhero films like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse have done quite good business this summer, DC projects like The Flash and Shazam!: Fury of the Gods were absolute disasters and Marvel already saw Ant-Man: Quantumania crater at the box office in February amid mediocre reviews. The capes that Hollywood has soared with in the past might be showing some wear and tear.

However, Barbie and Oppenheimer have two big things in common outside of not being sequels: they don’t have any comic book characters, and they appeal to adult audiences in ways that some superhero films do not.

It remains to be seen just how impactful the “Barbenheimer” moment will be for the future of film, but make no mistake. If these films really do financially what they could, Hollywood is going to have to really think about how it spends its money in the future.

If this sparks the return of more original concepts and wild swings with existing properties in the summer months, then it’s all the better for us.