Emmy Experts Typing: Assessing the incredibly stacked Best Comedy Supporting Actor race

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss all the drama in the comedy races.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’re back to type about the laughs, which is great because there’s so much drama to this year’s comedy categories (and not just because “The Bear” is a top contender for numerous awards, hey-o). Neither of us was very surprised the TV academy stayed loyal to “Ted Lasso” despite the somewhat rocky reception to its third (and final?) season. By sheer numbers, “Ted Lasso” Season 3 is a stronger nominee than “Ted Lasso” Season 2 — and that the third season scored two editing nominations seemingly speaks to the academy’s undying devotion to the two-time series winner. It would take a lot for me to move it out of my top spot — not that it’s without competition, particularly from “The Bear.” I’ll just type this now: I think I have “The Bear” winning too many Emmys, perhaps a sign that my preferences outweigh the reality. Like many, we both have Jeremy Allen White winning Best Comedy Actor — one of the seemingly safest bets of the year. We both also have Ayo Edebiri taking Best Comedy Supporting Actress, a surging pick among our users and Experts. That feels right too, although maybe it’s a hopediction? I can’t even tell anymore, but I will say Edebiri is actually funny on “The Bear” Season 1, a show that gets dinged for being a drama amongst comedies far too often. This is where we split: I have Ebon Moss-Bachrach winning Best Comedy Supporting Actor for “The Bear” too, pulling a 2021 Brett Goldstein (who arguably pushed ahead of his “Ted Lasso” castmates for Season 1 thanks to his Season 2 episode “Rainbow,” which aired right during voting). Moss-Bachrach is arguably the MVP of “The Bear” Season 2 and his showcase episode, “Forks,” is forking perfect. But maybe that’s a red herring: Moss-Bachrach was an underdog pick before the nominations and his character was a lot less lovable in Season 1, the episodes on which academy members are voting. This is why I’m thisclose to putting Phil Dunster in first. As I typed moments ago, the academy still loves “Ted Lasso” (witness those 21 nominations) and while two-time winner Goldstein could easily force a vote-split among the “Ted” faithful, it seems like most of the show’s fans considered Dunster the Season 3 MVP. He was also an underdog contender before the nominations. Now that he’s here, Dunster could be a major force (and putting him in first would mean I don’t have “The Bear” winning three lead acting awards, plus Jon Bernthal in guest actor, but not series.) Joyce, you have neither Dunster nor Moss-Bachrach in first here, but our boy James Marsden. The “Jury Duty” surge feels so real, so make the case for his win.

joyceeng61: As someone who’s been beating the “‘Forks’ is the new ‘Rainbow‘” drum since Season 2 of “The Bear” dropped, I feel like I’m betraying myself by not predicting EMB. But as we discussed, this is an incredibly competitive category with a handful of nominees who inspire a lot of passion. It’s so competitive that I had to put my beloved Anthony Carrigan in fifth. I also have JAW, Edebiri and Bernthal prevailing, so four seemed like a lot of acting awards for “The Bear” to win (not that that can’t happen). And since supporting actor is so loaded, I sadly bumped Moss-Bachrach down to second. Like I said the other day, Marsden already did the hard part of getting the nomination. He could’ve easily been the only nom for “Jury Duty,” but it over-performed with series, writing and casting bids. I have it in the top three in all of these categories and winning two. Am I insane? (Always.) It feels like of all the series nominees across the genres, it has the highest potential of grabbing more eyeballs in Phase 2. The show’s high-wire concept and Marsden’s performance are also “the apple in the bag of oranges.” If they care about LOLs, he’s effing hilarious lampooning the vainglorious actor and method acting tropes, and I think his peers will also clock the difficulty of the “you get one shot” improv nature of his and the other actors’ roles. I will not be the least bit shocked if Goldstein three-peats, but this year is arguably the first time he’s faced serious internal competition with Dunster (no offense to “Ted’s” former nominees here). Dunster could siphon off enough votes, and like I said, Moss-Bachrach feels like he might also appeal to the same voter base, so to speak, as Goldstein — Richie Jerimovich and Roy Kent are both prickly but ultimately lovable dudes who get stellar arcs and find new professional purpose in their respective second seasons. Tyler James Williams is in first in the odds, just like he was in Phase 1. You weren’t confident in his win chances before noms and neither of us have him in our top fours, but are we underestimating the Golden Globe champ who has a fantastically meta submission option (“Educator of the Year”)?

SEE Experts slugfest: Our first post-nominations 2023 Emmy winner predictions

Christopher Rosen: As you wrote, this category is so competitive that I could make the case for five different actors to win. But if I were to rank them — and hey, I did in our predictions — Williams would come in fifth. He could easily win, of course, but “Abbott” underperformed in the nominations and I just think this is a category where voters might value the flashier performances from the four men I have in front of Williams over his deadpan steadiness. In the interest of moving through the prime-time comedy categories, how about writing and directing? Earlier this week, you convinced me to move “Ted Lasso” into first in directing, where it would repeat as a winner. We both have “The Bear” taking writing. But is that assured and why do I think your beloved “Jury Duty” could actually win there?

joyceeng61: Because it can? Lol. I have it in second. I think one of the reasons it’s in fifth in the odds is because “Jury Duty” is an improv-heavy show and most people automatically associate scripts with dialogue. But scripts also contain stage directions, setting descriptions, info for the crew, plot, conflict and resolution. “Jury Duty” may not have lines for its actors to recite exactly down to the comma, but its scripts have all these other details like a good script should. And while I still side-eye those two “Game of Thrones” writing wins, the writing branch is far more discerning than, say, the directing branch and has made numerous great choices in nominations and wins in recent years that show the writers pay attention. Plus, “Jury Duty’s” nominated episode, “Ineffective Assistance,” has a bonus script within a script: the self-serious sides for “Lone Pine.” This is another good category — an example of the writers showing taste: I’m glad “The Other Two” can finally be called an Emmy nominee — and the defending champ isn’t even here. Pre-noms, I think some folks thought Quinta Brunson could repeat here, but now her individual hopes for “Abbott” rest on Best Comedy Actress, a category in which she became the default frontrunner after “Hacks” was delayed. I would not be surprised if she wins, but she feels more vulnerable than the odds might suggest. We’re both going against the grain with Rachel Brosnahan and I’m not certain about that at all. Every nominee here feels like they could win and lose if you know what I mean.

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Christopher Rosen: It’s true. I could make the case for any of these women and that leads me to believe we’ll be surprised whenever these 2023 Emmy Awards actually take place. The safe money is on Brunson — she’s been the favorite for months — and it’s easy to make a case for Brosnahan since she’s a previous winner and the final season of “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” was certainly a creative return to form. But *Meryl voice* I have such doubts. I honestly keep coming back to Jenna Ortega, who is maybe the 2023 version of 2020 Zendaya? I’m sure that’s wrong though, even though I could see going to her eventually for lack of a better alternative. Joyce, if not Brunson or Brosnahan, who would you go to bat for in the Best Comedy Actress category? I’ll let you have the last word.

joyceeng61: We talked about this. I’ve seen the Ortega-Zendaya comp come up several times in the past week, but it feels like that link is being made because they’re both Disney Channel alums who nabbed their first noms for their leveled-up roles in their early 20s. I think Dominique Fishback is serving more 2020 Zendaya energy: Both have a lot of fiercely passionate supporters of their performances (especially compared to that of Ortega) for shows that did not crack the series race and are more “serious” than “Wednesday.” “Euphoria” Season 1 got more noms, but “Swarm” got a second above-the-line nom in writing. I have the three ladies from series nominees in the top three since no one from a non-series nominee has won this category since Melissa McCarthy in 2011 under the tape system (granted, Julia Louis-Dreyfus won six of these during that time span). But since it does feel unsettled, maybe Christina Applegate or Natasha Lyonne could pull a Zendaya themselves? Everyone is Zendaya. Zendaya is Meechee.

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