Emmy for Best Drama Actor is one of the year’s closes races: Culkin vs. Strong vs. Odenkirk vs. Pascal

The Emmy race for Best Drama Actor has changed since the nominations were announced. Going into the announcement of the official contenders, we had Jeremy Strong on top of our odds for his performance on “Succession” based on the combined predictions of our users. Then it was announced that his co-star Kieran Culkin would be submitting as a lead actor for the first time, and he started rapidly climbing in our odds. But Culkin didn’t quite make it to the top of the chart — until now. He shouldn’t get too comfortable, though. This could be one of the year’s closest races.

Culkin gets leading odds of 7/2 with support from five out of eight Expert journalists who have placed their bets as of this writing (with more Experts to come over the next few weeks). He’s also favored by seven out of 11 Gold Derby Editors, 17 of our Top 24 Users, and an overwhelming 19 of our All-Star Top 24.

But Strong follows with 9/2 odds and the backing of one Expert, two Editors, three Top Users, and three All-Stars. Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”) also gets 9/2 odds; two Experts, one Editor, and one All-Star are predicting him to win. And rounding out our top four with 11/2 odds is Pedro Pascal (“The Last of Us“), predicted by one Editor, three Top Users, and one All-Star.

So what makes this race such a close call? A lot of it comes down to whether the three “Succession” actors (Culkin, Strong, and Brian Cox) split votes. Multiple “Succession” actors didn’t stop Strong from winning in 2020 (he was up against Cox), but it may have been a factor in 2022 when “Succession” won Best Drama but Lee Jung-jae (“Squid Game”) overtook both Cox and Strong here. Now there are three “Succession” men, and while Culkin could be the consensus choice among them, his co-stars might siphon away just enough votes to open the door for someone else.

But who? It’s not entirely clear who would benefit if the “Succession” men divide support. Odenkirk is the sentimental favorite since this is the last season of “Better Call Saul,” but the TV academy hasn’t really been sentimental about “Saul”; the show hasn’t won a single Emmy yet. Pascal has the benefit of a show with a lot more support than Odenkirk’s (24 noms for “Last of Us,” just seven for “Saul”), and the academy liked Pascal enough to nominate him three times (he’s also up for guest hosting “SNL” and narrating “Patagonia”). But “Last of Us” is brand new to the Emmys and untested on the awards scene. Even with two dozen nominations, it remains to be seen whether it will really be voters’ cup of tea.

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