Using Sportsbooks to Predict 4,000-Yard Passers

The 2022 season produced the fewest 4,000-yard passers in five years, but here are 13 quarterbacks who could reach that mark this season.

Only nine quarterbacks threw for 4,000 yards in 2022, which was the fewest since 2017. Over the last decade, an average of 10.7 quarterbacks hit that milestone every year. The fewest to do so was eight in 2017 and the most was 13 in 2016.

There are a few signal-callers who can be penciled in for 4,000 passing yards year in and year out — five players have over/unders set north of that mark. The hard part is predicting the other quarterbacks who will join them in that club.

In order to do so, let’s use SI Sportsbook’s odds for the regular-season passing leader and individual over/unders to figure out which quarterbacks will surpass 4,000 passing yards in 2023.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

Odds to Win Passing Title: +300
Passing Yards O/U: 4700.5

Mahomes has thrown for at least 4,000 yards every season he’s been the full-time starter. The reigning MVP led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards, a new career-high, in 2022 and he’s the favorite to do so once again. Kansas City saw some turnover in its wide receiver room with the departure of JuJu Smith-Schuster, but the trusty Travis Kelce is back to lead a young group of talented pass-catchers. Mahomes is consistently among the league leaders in pass attempts and yards per attempt, which makes 4,000 an easy bar to clear and 5,000 a possibility annually.

Joe Burrow, Bengals

Odds to Win Passing Title: +650
Passing Yards O/U: 4,325.5

Burrow is armed with the weapons to make a run at 5,000 yards for the first time. As it stands, he’s thrown for more than 4,400 both times he’s played 16 games and he was on pace for well over 4,000 as a rookie before his season was cut short by injury. Between Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati has a claim to the best receiving corps in the NFL. Burrow’s number of attempts have gone up each year and he remains one of the game’s most accurate passers. Bank on a third consecutive 4,000-yard season for Burrow behind an improved offensive line.

Justin Herbert, Chargers

Odds to Win Passing Title: +650
Passing Yards O/U: 4,400.5

Herbert’s left tackle, Rashawn Slater, missed considerable time last year and his top receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, were in and out of the lineup. He also suffered from fractured rib cartilage in Week 2 but Herbert didn’t miss a game and went on to finish second behind Mahomes in passing yards with 4,739. He set a new career high in attempts (699) but his yards per attempt plummeted from what he averaged through his first two seasons. Slater’s return, the addition of rookie receiver Quentin Johnston and a change at offensive coordinator from Joe Lombardi to Kellen Moore should help Herbert have his best year yet. And even if he doesn’t set new personal records, he’s established a high enough floor already — Herbert has the most passing yards through three seasons of any quarterback in NFL history.

Kirk Cousins, Vikings

Odds to Win Passing Title: +900
Passing Yards O/U: 4,325.5

Cousins passed more in his first season under coach Kevin O’Connell (643 attempts) than he ever has in his career. His 4,547 passing yards were the fourth-most in the NFL, a huge chunk of which went to All-Pro receiver Justin Jefferson, who finished with 1,809 yards. Minnesota’s offseason moves indicate that Cousins might be in for another pass-heavy campaign. The Vikings released running back Dalvin Cook, drafted receiver Jordan Addison and parted ways with Za’Darius Smith and Dalvin Tomlinson, two top defenders from a unit that was among the NFL’s worst in 2022. Between Jefferson, Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson, Cousins has one of the better pass-catching groups at his disposal to help him extend his streak of three straight 4,000-yard seasons.

Josh Allen, Bills

Odds to Win Passing Title: +1000
Passing Yards O/U: 4,200.5

Allen was hampered by an elbow injury down the stretch last season and he still finished as one of the league’s premier passers. Though his yardage has gone down each of the past two years, he still threw for 4,283 yards in 2022. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs is staying put in Buffalo, which seems to be all Allen needs to pilot an elite offense. The Bills also added tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round to bolster their group of pass-catchers. Only Mahomes, Tom Brady and Herbert have more yards than Allen since his 2020 breakout; a fourth straight 4,000-yard campaign is the expectation for the perennial MVP candidate.

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

Odds to Win Passing Title: +1200
Passing Yards O/U: 3,850.5

Tagovailoa led all passers in yards per attempt, yards per completion and passer rating last season. But Tagovailoa fell short in counting stats as he played just 13 games due to two separate concussions. He was on pace for over 4,600 yards had he played a full 17-game schedule — instead he finished with 3,548, a new career-high. The arrival of coach Mike McDaniel helped unlock Tagovailoa, who benefits from one of the best receiving duos in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Durability is the biggest concern for Tagovailoa considering he’s missed eight games in the last two seasons. But if he can stay on the field for the bulk of the year, he should set a new career-high in passing yards for a third consecutive season and crack 4,000 for the first time.

Jared Goff, Lions

Odds to Win Passing Title: +1600
Passing Yards O/U: 3,875.5

Goff enjoyed his best statistical season since 2018 in his second year in Detroit. His 4,438 yards were the sixth-most in the NFL and the third-most he’s thrown for in his career. Goff is once again set up for success in the Motor City behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Lions also added first-round running back Jahmyr Gibbs to a skill-position group headlined by Pro Bowl receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. Jameson Williams is also set to return after he serves his six-game suspension. Perhaps the biggest boon for Goff is that offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, a hot name on the coaching carousel, elected to return to the team. Everything is falling into place for Goff to mirror the success he had in 2022.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys

Odds to Win Passing Title: +1600
Passing Yards O/U: 3,925.5

Prescott was on pace for just over 4,000 yards last season had he held up for the whole year. Instead, he finished with 2,860 across 12 games and in the offseason he lost his offensive coordinator and starting tight end. Coach Mike McCarthy is taking over play calling duties with a stated intent to run the ball more. As for the personnel changes, receiver Brandin Cooks will help offset Dalton Schultz’s departure. The last two times Prescott played 16 games (2021 and 2019) he surpassed 4,000 passing yards with ease and he was on pace for a career-best campaign in 2020 before he went down. This season should be no different so long as his number of attempts doesn’t take too big of a hit.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

Odds to Win Passing Title: +1600
Passing Yards O/U: 3,900.5

Lawrence took a massive leap from his rookie year to his sophomore season. He went from leading the NFL in interceptions to becoming a 4,000-yard passer who earned a Pro Bowl nod. Now, he’s in his second year in Doug Pederson’s offense with Calvin Ridley joining a group of pass-catchers that already includes receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones and tight end Evan Engram. Lawrence’s yards per attempt lagged behind some of his counterparts a season ago, so if he’s able to raise that average and throws about as many passes as he just did, there’s a clear path to another 4,000-yard campaign. 

Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Odds to Win Passing Title: +2000
Passing Yards O/U: 3,875.5

Prior to 2022, Rodgers had finished with over 4,000 yards in four straight seasons. His down year in Green Bay saw him tally just 3,695 yards, his lowest mark ever for a full season. Rodgers is entering his age-40 campaign, but he’s also just a year removed from winning back-to-back MVPs. He’s reuniting with his old offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett in New York and he brought longtime teammates Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb with him. Rodgers will also have a bonafide WR1 in Garrett Wilson after he struggled without Davante Adams last season. (Fun fact: The Jets have never had a 4,000-yard passer in a 16- or 17-game season. Joe Namath threw for 4,007 in 14 games in 1967 and no other quarterback has hit that mark for New York.)

Matthew Stafford, Rams

Odds to Win Passing Title: +2000
Passing Yards O/U: Not available

A spinal contusion cut Stafford’s 2022 season short after nine games. He only cracked 300 yards once, which happened regularly the previous year, his first in Los Angeles. The marriage of Stafford and coach Sean McVay was a boon in 2021 — the former Lion threw for 4,886 yards (1,947 of which went to Cooper Kupp) on the way to a Super Bowl victory. Stafford has thrown for 4,000 yards in nine of his 14 seasons in the league and he still has Kupp to pepper with targets. Durability is a bit of a concern as Stafford enters his age-35 season coming off an injury, but if he plays all 17, it’s not hard to envision him repeating what he’s done for most of his career.

Geno Smith, Seahawks

Odds to Win Passing Title: +2500
Passing Yards O/U: 3,800.5

Smith threw for more yards a year ago than he did in his previous seven seasons combined. His late-career emergence was one of the biggest stories in the NFL as he threw for 4,282 yards on his way to the playoffs, with a Pro Bowl nod to boot. Smith took full advantage of the talented receiver duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and Seattle added first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the mix to make this aerial attack even more dangerous. Of course, coach Pete Carroll loves to establish the run and the front office added another running back in the second round of the draft, but the Seahawks’ suspect defense should put them in plenty of passing situations once again.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles

Odds to Win Passing Title: +2500
Passing Yards O/U: 3,600.5

Hurts has taken a step forward as a passer season. He fell short of 4,000 yards last year as he finished with 3,701 in 15 games — had he played all 17, he was on pace to hit that milestone, though. Philadelphia does tend to impose its will on the ground, specifically with Hurts and a league-best line, but a more difficult schedule for the NFC champs might necessitate a bump in passing frequency. Hurts threw very little in the second half last season with his team nursing leads. Receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert combine to make up one of the best all-around pass-catching groups in the league, which helps Hurts’ case, especially if he does end up throwing more often.

Summary

That’s 13 players projected to hit 4,000 yards, which would be four more than last year and tied for the most in the last decade. There are injury concerns for players such as Tagovailoa that could derail their chances and Stafford and Prescott have also been banged up in recent years.

Some of the notable names missing from this list are Derek Carr (+2000, O/U: 3800.5), Jimmy Garoppolo (+2500, O/U: 3550.5), Deshaun Watson (+2500, O/U: 3500.5), Russell Wilson (+2500, O/U: 3,750.5) and Lamar Jackson (+3000, O/U: +3400.5). In Carr’s case, he’s coming off his worst season since 2017, which was also the last time the Saints had a 4,000-yard passer. Health is a concern for Garoppolo ahead of the start of the season, and he’s never done it before, even in Kyle Shanahan’s quarterback-friendly offense. Watson and Wilson have both done it before, but their offenses will likely lean heavily on their running games. And as for Jackson, perhaps new offensive coordinator Todd Monken does help unlock him as a passer, but he’s only surpassed 3,000 yards once in his five-year career — 4,000 would be quite the leap.