MLB's trade deadline is a great time for bettors to find playoff value
It's important for bettors to know which teams are buyers at the deadline.
Welcome to the Winner’s Circle, a weekly column by Bet For The Win senior writer Prince J. Grimes.
The MLB trade deadline is always a good time of the year for bettors to go bargain bin shopping in the futures market for lines that could see drastic changes after the frenzy of deals comes to a close.
The deadline isn’t until Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET, and we’ve already seen deals that have caused considerable odds swings, specifically the blockbuster trade between the Texas Rangers and New York Mets.
After acquiring Max Scherzer from New York on Saturday, the Rangers’ odds to win the World Series went from +1100 to +850 at DraftKings. Their odds to win the AL West and AL pennant also improved.
After the Mets have agreed to trade Max Scherzer to Texas…
Rangers to win AL West odds movement:
+100-135
Rangers to win AL odds movement:
+475Rangers to win World Series odds movement:
+1100— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) July 30, 2023
Even after jumping to -135 to win the AL West, Texas was back down to +120 on Monday morning — second to the Houston Astros (+100) — giving bettors more time to hammer those odds before another potential move, or jump on the Astros before they inevitably make a splash.
Going forward, these are the type of shifts bettors will want to get ahead of in anticipation of teams making trades to fortify their playoff runs, especially with names like Justin Verlander still on the market. Understanding which teams are buyers is vital in doing that, and there’s no better place to look than at the top of Wild Card standings and division races.
In the tight AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles are tied at +130 to win the division, and the Toronto Blue Jays offer intriguing value at +475 with just 5.5 games between them and first place. Each team is a buyer at the deadline, and Toronto has already struck with the acquisition of hard-throwing reliever Jordan Hicks from the Cardinals.
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At the bottom of the division are the New York Yankees, who are 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot but always in the mix to make a big move. Bettors can get +200 odds on New York to make the playoffs.
Another team with plus playoff odds that could change after the deadline are the Chicago Cubs (+300), who are reportedly no longer sellers at the deadline after a recent 10-2 stretch that has them just four games out of the NL Central lead and 3.5 out of the Wild Card.
It’s also worth keeping an eye on the Los Angeles Angels who, aside from deciding not to trade the best player in baseball, have added 1B C.J. Cron and OF Randal Grichuk from the Colorado Rockies, and RHP Lucas Giolito and RHP Reynaldo Lopez from the Chicago White Sox. Sitting just four games out of a Wild Card spot with +550 odds to make the playoffs, they’ll presumably get Mike Trout back from the injured list at some point too.
Even a World Series contender like the Los Angeles Dodgers could see shorter odds than their current +500 after the deadline, having already added Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernandez and being mentioned as a potential landing spots for Verlander.
Those are just a few of the limitless opportunities for bettors to maximize their return on playoff bets and add some intrigue to the MLB season’s final stretch.