Stunning Stats Should Make Yankees Think Twice About Deadline Plan

The Yankees might have Major League Baseball’s second-highest payroll as well as a top-five starting pitcher alongside the reigning MVP. But they are almost certainly not going to win the World Series this season. At least not at the pace on which they currently find themselves. New York lost again Sunday, falling to 55-50 on […]

The Yankees might have Major League Baseball’s second-highest payroll as well as a top-five starting pitcher alongside the reigning MVP. But they are almost certainly not going to win the World Series this season.

At least not at the pace on which they currently find themselves.

New York lost again Sunday, falling to 55-50 on the season. The Yankees currently own last place in the American League East. Their run differential is barely on the plus side; only four teams (Detroit, Chicago, Kansas City and Oakland) have a worse mark. While they are just 3 1/2 games back in the AL wild-card race, they have their work cut out for them.

The Yankees open a three-game series with the 64-44 Tampa Bay Rays on Monday night in the Bronx. Theoretically, it’s a chance to build some momentum for a playoff stretch run, but a pair of eye-opening stats illustrate any sort of inclination to buy before Tuesday’s MLB trade deadline is wasted optimism.

Basically, the Yankees haven’t been able to prove they can beat major league-caliber teams this season. As The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner pointed out Sunday (via Sports Illustrated’s Jimmy Traina), New York has an 8-1 record against Oakland and Kansas City this season. Against the rest of baseball? The Yankees are just 47-49. The A’s and Royals are, of course, a combined 90 games under .500 this season, easily the worst two teams in the sport.

It gets worse. According to Stathead’s Katie Sharp (also via Traina), the Yankees have a minus-32 run differential in those 96 games that aren’t against Oakland or Kansas City (they are plus-41 in those nine games).

New York won’t see Oakland again this season, but they do finish the season with a three-game series in Kansas City.

General manager Brian Cashman should think twice about doing anything substantial ahead of Tuesday’s deadline. There’s no reason to believe, based on reports, he’s positioning himself to do so, either. Shohei Ohtani is staying put with the Angels (who are probably better than the Yankees anyway), and there hasn’t really been any sort of connection in a cross-town deal with the Mets for someone like Justin Verlander.

There’s also a little bit of reason for New York to be optimistic. The Yankees just recently got Aaron Judge back from the injured list (to then lose two of three to first-place Baltimore over the weekend), and they could get pitching help sooner than later with the returns of Nestor Cortes and Jonathan Loaisiga.

Maybe the Yankees find a way to put it all together. But without as many cupcakes to feast on down the stretch, don’t bet on it.