Wisconsin is a key swing state this year – and has a history of being unpredictable

(The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.)

Jonathan J. Kasparek, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

(THE CONVERSATION) Voters in Wisconsin – now considered a critical swing state ahead of the 2024 presidential election – may be among the most unpredictable in the nation.

Although former President Barack Obama carried the state in the 2008 election and again in 2012, Wisconsin voters stunned pollsters by voting for Donald Trump in 2016, marking the first time since 1984 that the state’s electoral votes went to a Republican. Then, in the 2020 election, the state’s voters chose a Democrat again – Joe Biden.

Wisconsin voters have also vacillated in their support for governors – selecting Republican Scott Walker in 2010 and 2014 with sizable margins, then voting for Democrat Tony Evers in 2018 and 2022.

Nonpartisan state Supreme Court elections have produced similar...