17 Percent Change Donald Trump Goes to Jail: Oddsmakers
Summary and Key Points: Americans are increasingly betting on sports and political outcomes, with legalized sports betting available in 37 states. Currently, bettors are wagering on the likelihood of former President Donald Trump going to prison before the November election, with odds at 17%.
-Interestingly, Trump has a 69% chance of defeating Joe Biden in the election, despite his recent conviction on 34 felony counts.
-The odds for Hunter Biden, who faces charges in Delaware, are lower, with a 14.3% chance of receiving probation.
Americans are increasingly betting on everything. It is mostly on sports, which picked up steam in 2018 after the Supreme Court overturned the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), which mandated that states could not legalize sports betting beyond existing horse racing, dog racing, and jai alai. Currently, sports books are legal in 37 states, as well as the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.
This week the big money may be on the NBA championships and NHL Stanley Cup, but some gamblers/investors are also betting on whether former President Donald Trump will be sent to prison after being convicted on 34 felony counts in New York last week.
It is now just five months away from Election Day, and a lot is likely to happen between now and then. However, those of a betting mind are predicting that Trump won't go to jail, but could return to the White House.
Donald Trump and Prison: What the Oddsmakers Say
According to the crypto punters on Polymarket, the former president stands a 17% chance of going to prison before the November U.S. presidential election. In January, a market for "Trump in jail before election day" was created and it has received more than $900,000 in best from cryptocurrency users.
Trump, who is the first former president to be convicted by a U.S. court of a felony, is currently set to hear the sentencing just four days before the Republican National Convention kicks off in July. He has vowed to "keep fighting until the end."
Better Chance He'll Return to the White House
Even at just a 17% chance, the former president's odds of going to jail are now far greater according the BetOnline than those of Hunter Biden, the deeply troubled son of President Joe Biden. The international bookmaker placed the odds at 6/1 (14.3%) that the younger Biden, who is now on trial in Delaware for illegally purchasing a firearm while addicted to crack cocaine, will receive probation. The odds were just 14/1 (6.7%) that he'd receive community service and only 20/1 (4.8%) chance that the president's son would go to jail. There is a 33/1 (2.9%) likelihood that Hunter Biden could receive house arrest.
The good news for Donald Trump is that even as the odds are slightly greater that he could go to prison – which is still highly unlikely given that he has no previous conviction and the charges were low-level, non-violent felonies – more believe he'll return to the White House. According to OddsChecker.com, former President Trump has a 69% percent chance of defeating sitting President Joe Biden in the November Presidential Election.
Trump is the GOP presumptive nominee, and while as a convicted felon he can't vote for himself, no law actually bars him from running for public office. A recent ABC News poll found that only 4% of his supporters had said before the verdict came down that they would withdraw their support.
Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.