The Polls are Turning Against Donald Trump
Summary and Key Points: Recent polling data indicates a close race between former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden for the 2024 election.
-While some polls show Biden leading slightly, the results vary and the margins are often within the error range, effectively indicating a tie.
-The polling reflects only a small sample size of voters, and the true outcome will likely hinge on key battleground states.
Donald Trump Trails Biden in Latest Polls Amid Tight 2024 Race
Former President (and presidential candidate) Donald Trump is coming off a terrible polling week.
Trump is expected to face incumbent President Joe Biden in the 2024 election. And the 2024 election is expected to be close.
In an effort to glean some sort of projection for the upcoming election, pundits have been closely watching the polls, looking for trends, or for daylight between the candidates.
A recent string of polls boded poorly for Trump. But then again, polls are just polls, and we’re still four months out from election day. So, polling should not be given too much weight.
Regardless, let’s take a look and see what’s happening in Trumpworld.
Voters not impressed
“This week, three polls have shown Trump is now behind Biden,” Newsweek reported. “One – a Fox News poll of 1,095 register voters – showed Biden ahead of Trump with 50 percent of the vote share to the former president’s 48 percent. The new polling results show a three-point change from May, when Trump was ahead by one point.”
The three-point swing in Biden’s favor could be the result of Trump’s recent criminal conviction. Last month, Trump became the first former president ever convicted with felony charges. Observers expected a dip in Trump’s support, which the Fox News poll may now be detecting.
Still, the Fox News poll consulted just 1,095 registered voters. But over 120 million people voted in the 2020 election, so let’s not put too much stock into the Fox poll. And bear in mind, the Fox poll had a margin of error for plus-or-minus 3 percentage points, meaning that technically, the poll was a tie.
Another poll conducted by Morning Consult measured the attitudes of 10 132 voters, finding that 44 percent would vote for Biden and 43 percent would vote for Trump. Again, the poll had a margin of error of plus or minus one percent, so the candidates were technically tied.
The third poll, conducted by YouGov, polled 1,094 adults, finding that 41 percent intended to vote for Biden and 39 percent intended to vote for Trump. The YouGov poll had a plus-or-minus of 3.6 percentage points.
And, of course, there are other polls, some of which show Trump leading Biden.
Grain of salt for Polls and Donald Trump
Aside from the fact that the polls represent only a small sample size of voters, and aside from the fact that each of the three polls technically ended in a tie, little credence should be paid to the numbers.
Unfortunately, presidential elections are decided in a handful of battleground states, mostly in suburban districts within those battleground states, where voters are moderate and impressionable and capable of tipping their state in favor of one candidate or another.
What I’d be interested in are the poll results from voters living in suburban Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania.
One thing that all the polls do seem to suggest is that the race for the White House will be tight. Either Biden or Trump has a legitimate shot at winning their second election.
About the Author: Harrison Kass
Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
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