Donald Trump Survives Assassination: The 2024 Election Is His To Lose
American presidents and presidential candidates have regularly been targeted for assassination. On Saturday, in Butler, Pa, where he was holding a political rally, Donald J. Trump became the first to become wounded since Ronald Reagan was shot by John Hinckley outside the Washington Hilton in 1981. Does the attempted assassination of Trump portend a plunge into further political violence? Or will it serve as a wake-up call?
Both President Joe Biden and Trump sounded notes about unifying America. “It’s sick,” Biden said. “It’s one of the reasons why we have to unite this country. We cannot allow for this to be happening. We cannot be like this. We cannot condone this.” On Sunday Trump stated: "In this moment, it is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win. I truly love our Country, and love you all, and look forward to speaking to our Great Nation this week from Wisconsin."
Trump’s defiant reaction to the shooting—raising his fist and shouting “fight!”—will ratify his stature as a living martyr for the MAGA cause. The Republican party’s principle is Trump. He will be greeted as a conquering hero in Milwaukee where he will be officially anointed as the party standard-bearer and present his choice for vice-president. The question will be whether Trump will seek to portray himself as a uniter, not a divider. It is notable that in recent weeks he has taken several steps to detach himself from longtime party doctrine on abortion and gay marriage. He has also publicly assailed the Heritage Foundation-backed Project 2025--Heritage president, Kevin Roberts, also has a forthcoming book titled Dawn’s Early Light: Burning Down Washington to Save America.
Currently, Trump has stated that the motives of the shooter are unclear. Others in the GOP such as Senator J.D. Vance, widely touted as a likely choice for Trump’s running mate, are taking a less emollient approach, seeking to pin the blame for the shooting directly on Biden. Vance asserted, “Today is not just some isolated incident. The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump's attempted assassination.” A number of other Republican legislators have also blamed Biden. Florida Sen. Rick Scott said that Biden stated he “wanted to put Trump in the crosshairs. This isn’t some unfortunate incident. This was an assassination attempt by a madman inspired by the rhetoric of the radical Left.” Right now, there is no clear evidence on the motives of the 20-year-old gunman Thomas Matthew Crooks, who was shot dead by a Secret Service sniper. He was apparently a registered Republican and once donated a grand total of $15 to Act Blue.
God protected President Trump pic.twitter.com/96UKVdjF3A
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) July 13, 2024
For Biden, the shooting comes as a potent distraction from his post-debate woes inside the Democratic party, much of which has recoiled at the prospect of him remaining at the helm and yearned for someone, anyone, to replace him. That discussion is now closed. It will now be virtually impossible to dislodge Biden.
As Trump heads into the convention, polls indicate that he is maintaining a narrow edge over Biden in the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A new CBS News poll suggests that among likely voters he has a two percent edge in all three. The events in Butler are likely to give him a further bump, at least temporarily. Right now, the election, more than ever, is Trump’s to lose.
About the Author
Jacob Heilbrunn is editor of The National Interest and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He has written on both foreign and domestic issues for numerous publications, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Reuters, Washington Monthly, and The Weekly Standard. He has also written for German publications such as Cicero, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, and Der Tagesspiegel. In 2008, his book They Knew They Were Right: the Rise of the Neocons was published by Doubleday. It was named one of the one hundred notable books of the year by The New York Times. He is the author of America Last: The Right’s Century-Long Romance with Foreign Dictators.
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