Precision and bias of carbon storage estimations in wetland and mangrove sediments | Science Advances

Peaty sediments in coastal wetlands play an important role in the sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide and its belowground storage. Sediment cores are used to quantify organic matter (OM) density, estimated by multiplying the bulk density of a core segment by its OM fraction. This method can be imprecise, as repeated samples often differ widely. Recent studies have shown that sediment bulk density and OM fraction are not independent but tightly related by a function called the ideal-mixing model. Thus, the bulk density of the sediment can be directly estimated from its OM fraction. Statistical theory and simulations demonstrate that the high variance in the product estimation of OM density is the result of error propagation in the product of two functionally related variables with independent errors. Estimating OM density in wetland sediments using the ideal-mixing model is more precise than the traditionally used product estimate, especially in highly organic sediments.