Building A Luis Robert Jr. Trade With The Houston Astros
The decision regarding what to do with Luis Robert Jr. is the most significant item remaining on the White Sox to-do list this offseason. The Cincinnati Reds are a logical fit for Robert Jr.’s services. As the offseason has progressed, another team has emerged as a picture-perfect fit: the Houston Astros.
Astros Transition Phase And Reshaped Core
The Astros are in a transition phase right now. They traded Kyle Tucker, one of the faces of their franchise, earlier this month. They will also likely let Alex Bregman leave in free agency. That said, they are not tearing things to the ground and starting from scratch. They are still looking to compete with a retooled roster.
Houston acquired third baseman Isaac Paredes from the Cubs as part of the Tucker trade. The Astros also signed free agent first baseman Christian Walker to a three-year contract earlier today. Their infield now looks set. Following the Tucker trade, however, their outfield group is arguably the worst in baseball. They need help at all three outfield positions. Robert Jr. is a logical fit as they undoubtedly will look for outfield upgrades.
Trade Proposal: Luis Robert for infielder Cam Smith (#73 overall prospect in MLB) and outfielder Jacob Melton (Astros #2 prospect)
Cam Smith
Cam Smith is the Astros’ #1 prospect and the #73 prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com. The 21-year-old right-handed infielder was the Cubs’ first-round pick in 2024 and was part of the Kyle Tucker trade earlier this month.
Scouts rave about Smith’s arm strength and ability to produce high exit velocities. His ground ball rates in professional ball so far are higher than one would like to see, but it is hard to argue with the results. He crushed Low-A in the Cubs organization before being promoted to High-A and eventually AA. He hit .313 with five doubles, four triples, seven home runs, and a 1.004 OPS in 32 minor league games after being drafted. His strikeout rate also decreased at each professional level. Smith should move fast through the minors and could be the potential third baseman of the future for the White Sox.
Jacob Melton
Jacob Melton is a 24-year-old left-handed hitting outfielder and the Astros’ second-best prospect, per MLB.com. He had a respectable 2024, hitting 20 doubles and 15 home runs over 105 games across the AA and AAA levels. He also stole 30 bases and put up a .736 OPS. Baseball America ranked Melton as the #88 prospect in MLB before the 2024 season.
Melton consistently produces hard contact and exit velocities. He is also an above-average defender because of his exceptional speed, and scouts think he should be able to stick in center field long-term. Despite somewhat of a down season offensively, Melton would be a good get for a White Sox team needing to build up outfield depth.
Astros Thought Process
There is a lot to digest from this proposal, especially from the Astros’ perspective. It is fair to question why they would trade a top prospect they just acquired. It is also logical to second-guess trading away their best outfield prospect when good outfielders are their biggest need at the MLB level.
Houston Must Build Around Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez, Houston’s best player, has four more seasons of control. The Astros must do everything possible to capitalize on the prime of such an extraordinary talent, and their offseason moves have reflected that. The aforementioned Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker both have three seasons of control. Robert Jr. also has three years of control, assuming his team options are picked up. He aligns perfectly with the rebuilt position player core Houston is assembling.
Astros fans might think it is a steep price to part with their two most highly rated prospects for a player coming off his worst MLB season. However, Houston has one of their worst farm systems in MLB and must win now. Robert Jr. would help them more during Alvarez’s prime years than any prospect. And while Tucker is by far better than Robert Jr., flipping Cam Smith to the White Sox would essentially turn one season of Tucker and an outfield prospect into three seasons of Robert Jr., three seasons of Paredes, and five seasons of pitcher Hayden Wesneski.
White Sox Need Bats
From the White Sox side, this return would reflect the direction the organization is going in. If the Garrett Crochet trade is any indication, they want young position players. This trade would give them two more in the form of a top 75 infield prospect and a talented left-handed hitting outfielder who could eventually be Robert Jr.’s replacement in center field. Adding two more hitters in Smith and Melton would add to the White Sox reshaped foundation on the hitting side.
Final Word
The Houston Astros are a perfect trade partner for Luis Robert Jr. They have a glaring need in the outfield, and while their farm system isn’t great, they have what it takes to get a deal done.