NOAA’s 2025 hurricane forecast warns of a busy season – a storm scientist explains why and what meteorologists are watching

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Colin Zarzycki, Penn State

(THE CONVERSATION) U.S. forecasters are expecting an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 to 19 named storms, and 6 to 10 of those becoming hurricanes.

Every year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other forecasters release preseason outlooks for the Atlantic’s hurricane season, which runs June 1 through November 30.

So, how do they know what’s likely to happen months in the future?

I’m an atmospheric scientist who studies extreme weather. Let’s take a look at what Atlantic hurricane forecasts are based on and why those forecasts can shift during the season.

What goes into a seasonal forecast

Think of the preseason hurricane forecast as the 30,000-foot view: It can’t predict if or when a storm will hit a particular location, but it can offer insight into how many storms are likely to form throughout the entire Atlantic, and how active the season overall might be.

These outlooks rely heavily on two large-scale climate factors.

The first is the sea surface temperature in areas where tropical cyclones tend to form and grow. Hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean water. So when the Atlantic is...