Beware Biden’s ‘Trial Balloon’ on Escalation in Syria

Daniel L. Davis

Security, Middle East

It is unclear what military success in such chaos would even look like.

Last Saturday, Vice President Joe Biden signaled the United States was open to military escalation in Syria. Speaking in Istanbul after a meeting with Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu of Turkey on the future of Syria, Biden said a political solution to the fighting was preferable, “but we are prepared. . . to have a military solution to this operation and taking out Daesh (ISIS, or the Islamic State).” If the United States desires to turn a difficult situation for the international community in the Middle East into an outright American disaster, then we should by all means pursue deeper military engagement.

It is astounding that after two decades of failing to achieve strategic objectives in the Middle East using armed force, that a military solution in Syria now would even be considered. Biden is often lampooned as being prone to make gaffs. But he is clearly an intelligent man. The vice president is not going to float such an idea at a public briefing with the prime minister of an allied NATO power unless it has seen considerable contemplation in the White House. In all likelihood, his statement was a trial balloon to see what reaction it would get. Based on how past military deployments have played out, we should be concerned.

First, the vice president’s statement must be seen in context. It represents the latest step of a non-stop series of escalating military moves against the Islamic State that began in June 2014.  Shortly after the virtual disintegration of the Iraqi army against a few thousand ISIS troops, President Obama announced the United States would send 300 troops “to assess how we can best train, advise and support Iraqi security forces going forward.” He pointedly added that “American forces will not be returning to combat in Iraq. . .” They would only be there, he said, “to assess how we can best train, advise, and support Iraqi security forces. . .” That limitation didn’t last long.