Giving The Donald His Due

Matt Purple

Politics,

Trump solidified his position as the Republican front-runner last night.

If the Republican presidential nomination process is like major league football (it’s not, but bear with me), then the Iowa caucuses increasingly resemble the preseason. This is when the candidates stretch their legs and experiment with strategies, comfortable in the knowledge that a loss won’t eliminate them from the greater competition—where Mike Huckabee can crush John McCain, Rick Santorum can edge out Mitt Romney and the Washington Redskins can bask in a fleeting moment of glory over the New England Patriots before the natural order of the universe cruelly reasserts itself.

New Hampshire is the start of the regular season and perhaps the most pivotal game of the year. Let me divert your attention to the data before this metaphor gets any more strained. In the last seven competitive Republican primaries, five eventual nominees have won New Hampshire and two have placed second. The last two Republican presidential nominees sealed their wins in the Granite State. There’s a reason Republicans spend weeks donning navy-blue sweaters, trudging through the snowdrifts and answering questions about “Obamacayah.” New Hampshire is independent, quirky and predictive.

That’s why it’s no longer possible to deny The Donald his due. Credentialed Republicans have spent months wishfully opining that the bombastic billionaire will fade away. Trump’s underperformance in Iowa prolonged those delusions, but his decisive win in New Hampshire should pop them for good. He raked in more than a third of the Republican vote yesterday, and maintains wide leads in the upcoming South Carolina and Nevada contests. Donald Trump is the Republican front-runner—no more posturing, no more pretending.