Iran Isn’t Sweating Saudi Intervention in Syria

J. Matthew McInnis

Secuirty, Middle East

Iranian officials released their own chorus of responses, though the tenor of their comments was condescending.

The Saudi pledge on February 4 to contribute ground troops as part of an “accelerated” campaign in Syria was followed by similar announcements from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, along with hints that Qatar may also contribute symbolically. Small deployments of Gulf Arab forces are unlikely to significantly alter the battlefield in Syria, if they ever materialize. Could they, however, drive the complex proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia in Syria towards a more direct military confrontation?

The possible new Arab special operations deployments come as Iran’s hand in the conflict grows stronger, and the return on Saudi investment in Syrian opposition groups continues to disappoint. The opposition-held areas of Aleppo appear increasingly vulnerable to being retaken by the joint Syrian-Russian-Iranian assault and the Geneva peace talks appear to be going nowhere. The United States is also pressuring the Gulf States for greater participation in the fight against the Islamic State, while Turkey is willing to deepen its coordination with Saudi Arabia in Syria.

The big question is how Iran, and the Syrian army it supports, would react to its regional rival’s new moves on the ground. Neither Damascus nor Tehran wasted any time lambasting Riyadh. The most widely quoted response to the Saudi announcement was arguably that of Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem, who threatened that Saudi forces would “return home in wooden coffins.”

Iranian officials released their own chorus of responses, though the tenor of their comments was condescending, rather than threatening.