Vietnam’s Pivot to America Will Continue

Truong-Minh Vu, Nhung Bui

Security, Asia

Hanoi's Communist leaders still recognize the threat from Beijing.

How Vietnam’s foreign policies will change after January’s 12th Party Congress has been a subject of vibrant debate in recent weeks, especially because the party congress has consolidated the power of party conservatives, led by General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong. Some commentators have espoused the view that the reappointment of Mr. Trong will lead Vietnam to lean more towards China, due to the two countries’ shared Communist ideology and political system. The leadership reshuffle, which also involves the retirement of Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, would allow leaders to reemphasize the security of the Communist Party over economic reform and nationalism. According to a recent commentary in the National Interest, this could mean that Vietnam’s pivot to the United States might come to an end under the new leadership, despite positive developments in recent years. The author, Matthew Pennekamp, argues that “Trong has repeatedly placed his thumb on Vietnam’s foreign-policy scales whenever he felt they weighed too much in America’s favor.” While much is still uncertain, the article is overall pessimistic about the future of U.S.-Vietnam relations.

Others argue that major changes in Vietnam’s foreign policies are unlikely, and that it would avoid leaning towards one major power to balance against another. Past lessons, such as China’s hostility towards Vietnam after the latter struck a defense treaty with the Soviet Union in 1978, have taught Vietnamese leaders that a clear balancing policy can be harmful for the country’s security. This argument predicts that Hanoi will continue to cultivate ties with Washington, while mixing the elements of engagement and resolve in its relations with Beijing. Further, it would keep developing stronger ties with other regional actors, including Japan, ASEAN, India and Russia. According to Carl Thayer, even after the 12th Party Congress, Hanoi will continue to pursue a policy of “multi-polar balancing – diversification and multilateralization of relations – rather than a narrower policy of balancing relations between China and the United States.”

Our assessment is that Vietnam’s pivot to America will likely continue into the future, for two key reasons: