The population of Japan peaked in 2008 at 128 million. With the fertility rate — or births per woman — falling below 1.5 at the beginning of the 1990s and falling as low as 1.29 in 2004, the population is shrinking rapidly. Already Japan has one million people fewer than in 2008. The government aims to keep the population above 100 million by 2060.
Perhaps an even bigger problem is that the proportion of elderly Japanese is increasing rapidly. One-third of the population is above 60 years old and 12.5 per cent are above 75. The working age population peaked in 1997 and by one measure is already 9.7 million people fewer than it was then. These facts are well established but the consequences are yet to be fully digested. They are profound.
Rapid and sustained immigration might delay the population decline and could eventually arrest it, but it is extremely unlikely that Japan will open up to high levels of immigration. Japan has a lot of work to do culturally and institutionally before it can welcome immigrants of any significant number.
The primary objective of Japanese economic policy should be to maintain living standards and increase per capita incomes, not grow the aggregate economy. But even growing per capita incomes would be a remarkable achievement in the face of a demographic crunch of a size that no other country has faced before.
Japan’s neighbours are staring down the same problem. South Korea’s population is starting to shrink and China’s working age population has already peaked. China has the additional problem that it will become old before it becomes rich. In no other country is the demographic problem as acute as it is for Japan and the whole world will be watching for lessons.
Many countries are fixated on achieving GDP growth and the target for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Abenomics reform package is 1 per cent GDP growth a year. Japan’s GDP growth has been closer to zero in recent times.
Релиз трека. Релиз новой песни. Релиз сингла. Релиз Музыкального альбома.
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