Is Iran's Iraq Policy Coming Apart?

J. Matthew McInnis

Security, Iraq, Iran

Tehran's role in Baghdad's politics is stoking sectarianism and nationalism.

The Iraqi political crisis, triggered by public anger over monumental levels of government corruption, only continues to worsen after the storming of the parliament in Baghdad on April 30 by supporters of Shia Cleric Moqtada al Sadr. His militia reportedly may be mobilizing in response to the government’s inability to maintain security following a series of suicide bombings  by the Islamic State that killed more than 100 people in Baghdad over the past week. Sadr himself has apparently gone into seclusion again in Iran, raising many questions: Who is guiding his forces? How worried is the leadership in Tehran about these recent events? More importantly, is Iran’s 13-year project to shape the Iraqi state into a reliable partner seriously at risk?

Since the 2003 US-led invasion, the Islamic Republic has led a sustained effort to ”Iranianize” Iraqi governmental, religious, cultural, economic and security infrastructures. Central to this campaign has been Tehran’s creation and support of different Shia political and militias groups. Iran’s classic approach of backing multiple horses as they jockey for power and influence has largely worked in its favor. Not only are the odds good that Iranian allies will normally have a majority of power in the parliament and government ministries, but fueling a certain level of competition and instability prevents the emergence of what Tehran fears most: a strong, independent-minded or even Sunni Muslim-led Iraqi state. Iran’s leadership aims to keep the political thermostat in Iraq halfway between total state failure and Saddam Hussein 2.0.