How to Keep a Tougher Taiwan from Blowing Up

Harry Krejsa

Security, Asia

Tsai Ing-wen's bold new stance will create some risks.

This week, Taiwan will swear in its fourth democratically elected president, the first woman to hold the title. President-elect Tsai Ing-wen will also assume office with a historic legislative majority, marking the first time her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will enjoy unified control of government. The DPP has traditionally favored moving Taiwan toward formal independence, but during the campaign it promised domestic and nervous international audiences that it would largely maintain the cross-Strait status quo. Mounting economic anxiety, an increasingly independence-minded public and growing pressure from mainland China, however, may bend that pledge to its breaking point.

Unlike the events of the early 2000s, these confrontational pressures are not of the DPP’s own making. In a forthcoming report from the Center for a New American Security, I outline how Taiwanese society seems to be shifting away from a trajectory of ever greater economic integration, and toward growing Sino-skepticism. Outgoing President Ma Ying-jeou and his Kuomintang (KMT) party deserve credit for bringing much-needed stability and commerce to cross-Strait relations, but his rapprochement agenda hit a wall in his second term. The traditional high/low-tech division of labor across the strait began to blur as the mainland transitioned from a complementary source of cheap labor to an increasingly advanced direct competitor. Moreover, China’s gangbusters growth, which had so recently been a compelling reason for closer cross-Strait economic ties, began rapidly decelerating and dragging Taiwan down with it. In the eyes of the Taiwanese public, China’s economy had shifted from a source of stability to a liability.