The Long Slog Ahead: Britain and Brussels Negotiate the Divorce

Richard Burt, Philippe Maze-Sencier

Politics, Europe

The future, smaller EU could look very different from the one that has evolved over the past twenty years.

“‘Never has so much been put at risk for so many by so few for so little,’ says Robert Jenkins, a former banker, fund manager and policymaker, delivering an ironic invocation of Churchill’s description of . . . the Battle of Britain.”

Although over two weeks have passed since the British vote to leave the EU, much remains unclear. However this story unfolds, it will be a fairly lengthy process that will depend on political developments in the United Kingdom and on the continent, as well as on the pace and outlook of negotiations and the state of the economy. In the meantime—and until any negotiations are concluded—there will be no immediate change to people’s rights to travel and work, in the way goods and services are traded, or to the way the UK economy and financial system are regulated.

While Britain and Europe are still reeling from and confused about the aftermath of the June 23 referendum, trends have begun to emerge that provide some guidance for the weeks and months ahead. British voters’ decision to take their country out of the European Union after forty-three years of membership is without a doubt the most significant event on the continent since the fall of the Berlin Wall. It will result in a high degree of uncertainty for the foreseeable future and may see a significant fragmentation—if not the ultimate end—of the United Kingdom. Moreover, it will mean heightened tensions and risks of divisions among the twenty-seven remaining members and have profound implications for U.S. interests on the continent.

Negotiating the Breakup