A Year Later, the Iran Deal Is Alive and Well

Ilan Goldenberg, Elizabeth Rosenberg

Security, Middle East

It's halted proliferation, though U.S.-Iran relations are still as tense as ever.

One year ago this week, Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, Russia, Great Britain, France, Germany and China) agreed on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). As we have previously written, the success of this agreement will need to be assessed over a period of years—not months—and will be dependent not only on Iran’s behavior but also on the policies pursued by the other parties to the deal. Still, at the one-year mark, it is important to stand back and evaluate the progress to date. On the most important measure—whether the deal has been effectively implemented—the answer is a resounding yes. However, there are open questions about Iran’s regional behavior that could undercut the agreement, and vigilance will be needed over the long-term to ensure that effective implementation continues.

Implementation of the Nuclear Agreement

On the nuclear front, Iran has exceeded expectations. Most experts and government officials did not believe that Iran would be able to execute its initial nuclear obligations under the JCPOA until the spring or summer of 2016. Instead Iran was able to dismantle two-thirds of its centrifuges and ship out 97 percent of its low enriched uranium (LEU) by January of 2016, taking its overt dash time to a nuclear weapon from a matter of weeks to a full year. Meanwhile, Iran has submitted to an unprecedented inspections and verification regime that makes it extraordinarily difficult for it to pursue a meaningful covert program.