Asia's 5 Worst Economies in 2030

Anthony Fensom

Economics, Asia

Not all of Asia is destined to rise.

Asia might be becoming the center of economic gravity, but not every nation is sharing in the boom. While each have their own problems, these top five Asian economies that will be in trouble by 2030 all share a dependency on commodities, which, barring another boom, could place them in the economic danger zone.

1. North Korea

No surprises that the “hermit kingdom” gains the unwanted ranking of Asia’s most troubled economy. Ruled by a despotic communist dynasty, North Korea ranks last on most measures, including the Heritage Foundation’s 2016 Index of Economic Freedom, where it earned a mere 2.3 points out of 100 (even second-lowest Cuba had 29.8 points).

In addition to being the worst country in the world to do business, citizens have no property rights, and private enterprise is largely frowned upon in a nation with estimated per capita GDP of only $1,800.

To curb hyperinflation, in 2009 the state revalued its currency, the won, by moving its decimal point two places to the left, wiping out the savings of the entire population.

Even its friends are deserting the regime. In April, China, which receives an estimated 90 percent of North Korean exports, announced it would participate in UN sanctions against North Korea, barring further imports of resources such as coal and gold.

Barring a regime change, the nation ruled with an iron fist by supreme leader Kim Jong-un is unlikely to climb up the economic rankings anytime soon.

2. Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea was a pin-up economy during the China commodities boom, with foreign investment in projects such as ExxonMobil’s PNG LNG (liquefied natural gas) project helping make it the region’s fastest-growing economy last year.

However, the recent commodities downturn has reversed the picture for the Pacific nation with per capita GDP of $2,700. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects Papua New Guinea’s growth rate to fall from nearly 10 percent in 2015 to 2.4 percent in 2017, while the IMF sees this slowing further to only 1.4 percent in 2018.