The Trouble in Turkey Is Far From Over

John Allen Gay

Security, Turkey

The coup failed, but serious domestic and international crises may be coming.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to have successfully stopped the military coup launched against him last night. It was a bloody affair—images circulated on social media of civilian protesters torn apart by heavy-weapons fire, of helicopters firing into or near crowds, and of pro-coup soldiers abused and even beheaded by Erdogan’s supporters. Yet it could have been far, far worse, and the international aftershocks of the event may still be severe.

While it remains unclear precisely who launched the coup or just how events transpired, Turkey was clearly faced with the prospect of major internal conflict, and at a time when it already has one internal war (against the Kurds in its southeast) and sits on the frontiers of the struggle in Syria and Iraq. With the police loyal to Erdogan, elements of the military attempting to overthrow him, other elements of the military neutral or coming to his defense, massive, restive crowds in the streets and Erdogan himself in an unknown location, Turkey suffered several hours of chaos which could have easily resulted in far uglier violence—urban combat, massacres (like those that followed the coup in Egypt), territorial division, and so forth. If this situation persisted, the impact could have been far worse than that of the conflict in Syria:

-Turkey’s population is several times Syria’s; major displacement could have flooded Europe with refugees, making the Continent’s politics even more volatile and inwardly oriented.

-Loss of control on the Syrian border could have enabled migration waves from there, and could have empowered ISIS to bring in fighters and supplies or send attackers into Turkey, Europe, and beyond.

-Loss of control in the Kurdish areas could have emboldened Turkey’s Kurds to seek greater independence, which would destabilize Syria, Iraq, and Iran and the political balances among the Kurdish factions in those countries.