South Korean Nukes: Less Risky to America than Extended Deterrence

Doug Bandow

Security, Asia

The danger of ambiguity and entanglement is greater.

Looking to its legacy, the Obama administration may declare no first use of nuclear weapons. Some Asia specialists worried about North Korea argue against making such a pledge. That’s another reason it might be better for Washington to encourage its ally South Korea to turn to nuclear proliferation.

Washington has possessed nuclear weapons for more than seventy years. No one doubts that the United States would use nukes in its own defense. After all, America became the first nation to use the atomic bomb against Japan in World War Two.

However, since then Washington has extended a so-called “nuclear umbrella” over many of its allies that lack nuclear weapons. Exactly who is so protected and under what circumstances? No one really knows, especially with the Obama administration moving to narrow the circumstances for use of nuclear weapons.

Early in the Cold War, the United States threatened “massive retaliation” in Europe to offset Soviet conventional superiority. Once Moscow acquired an equivalent nuclear arsenal that approach lost appeal. Nevertheless, Washington still promised to use nuclear weapons in its NATO allies’ defense, though the precise circumstances under which the United States would act were not clear.

The United States also probably holds a nuclear umbrella over its Mideast allies. With perhaps two hundred of its own nukes, Israel doesn’t need American protection, though no election-minded U.S. politicians would admit as much. The United States could use nuclear weapons on behalf of Saudi Arabia and perhaps other friendly states, though that is far from clear. Certainly Washington is expected to prevent adversaries, such as Iran, from developing nukes. If Tehran moved ahead, some observers believe that Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey would respond with their own programs.

Northeast Asia is the region where nuclear threats seem greatest. Japan and South Korea are thought to be snuggled beneath America’s nuclear umbrella, discouraging them both from acquiring their own weapons. Other possible claimants include Taiwan and Australia, though no one quite knows what Washington would do when. Presumably the guarantee to use nuclear weapons is in place against Russia, the People’s Republic of China and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.