America Can Exploit Saudi-Egyptian Tensions

Samuel Ramani

Politics, Middle East

Washington can butt in between Riyadh and Cairo.

Since Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was overthrown by mass protests on February 11, 2011, the United States has struggled to convert its $1.3 billion annual military aid provisions to Egypt into consistent leverage over Cairo’s internal policies and international conduct. Instead of transitioning to democracy like many U.S. policymakers predicted, Egypt under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s rule has set new standards for political repression. As Egypt has become economically dependent on the Saudi Arabia-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and strengthened its relationship with Russia, many U.S. foreign-policy analysts have called for a downgrade in the U.S.–Egypt strategic partnership.

Despite underlying tensions between Washington and Cairo, the United States should not dial down its alliance with Egypt. Sisi is on the cusp of realigning Egypt’s foreign policy in a way that could greatly benefit U.S. interests. Egypt’s refusal to make vital economic reforms, and Sisi’s criticisms of GCC policies have strained Cairo’s relationships with its strongest regional allies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). If the GCC threatens to cut or suspend aid to Cairo, Sisi will likely ask the United States to intervene on his behalf to ensure that Egypt avoids insolvency. If Egypt strengthens its relationship with the United States from a position of vulnerability, the United States could regain its former leverage over Egypt and greatly expand its influence in the Middle East.

Since the 2013 coup that propelled Sisi to power, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been the primary providers of financial assistance to Egypt. However, GCC business elites have recently expressed frustration with Sisi’s unwillingness to implement necessary economic reforms. Even though Egypt is running an annual budget deficit of 12 percent of its GDP, the Egyptian parliament has refused to pass legislation to impose a value-added tax, end largely nonproductive food subsidies and reduce the size of Egypt’s bloated civilian bureaucracy.