Germany’s Turkey Quagmire

Martha Simms

Global Governance, Germany, Turkey

Germany is in the throes of a painful geopolitical struggle with Turkey made awkward by the presence of a large Turkish minority at home.

Germany’s relationship with Turkey has never been so fraught. Diplomatic relations between the two countries have gone from bad to worse with little improvement in sight. The most recent cause of tension came on August 15 when a classified interior ministry memo was leaked describing the Erdogan government as a “central platform” for Hamas, Egypt’s Muslim brotherhood, and Islamist groups in Syria. While these claims aren’t new in the international arena, the German government desires to keep up the appearance of diplomacy with Turkey. As if to underscore the awkwardness of the situation, Germany’s foreign ministry distanced itself from the interior ministry’s analysis, claiming it hadn’t been consulted.

Germany’s political contortions result from Angela Merkel’s attempts to maintain the EU-Turkey agreement signed earlier this year to stem the flood of Middle Eastern refugees.    Many in Germany suspect that this is why Merkel acquiesced to Erdogan’s demands this past April that a German comedian who in Germany mocked the Turkish president be prosecuted by German courts. Many Germans see this as not only a challenge to German freedom of speech but also an accommodation of growing Turkish authoritarianism.  

Turkish authorities responded to the leaked document with outrage, threatened to sue the German government, and claimed that Germany and other Western leaders had failed to support Erdogan after the attempted coup on July 15. Knowing the refugee deal hangs in the balance, Turkey is also proposing to overturn it if Turks are not granted visa-free travel in Europe. Ostensibly, that’s a tall order for Europe’s politicians given the recent wave of high-profile terrorist attacks and the ongoing border dispute between Turkey and Syria. With little other solution available on the refugee crisis, Merkel and other European leaders are reluctant to overturn the deal—even though Turkey looks less and less fit for partnership.

More concerning than the diplomatic relationship is the fear of how this worsening spat will play out among Germany’s large Turkish population. After the attempted coup against Erdogan, around 40,000 German-Turks in Cologne—some second- or even third-generation—flew the Turkish flag and demanded support for Erdogan from German leaders. Germany denied Erdogan’s requests to address the crowds by video, igniting another series of barbs between Ankara and the German diplomatic mission.