8 Decisive Factors That Will Shape the Battle for Mosul

Zalmay Khalilzad

Security, Middle East

A successful campaign in Mosul has the potential to be an important milestone in the process of reconciliation, but only if the post-campaign period is given due attention.

The long-anticipated offensive by Iraqi government and Kurdish Peshmerga forces to retake Mosul, supported by the United States, has begun. The exact evolution of the campaign is unpredictable, but eight issues are likely to shape its ultimate outcome.

What ISIS decides. It remains to be seen whether ISIS digs in for a protracted fight or cuts its losses in Iraq to fight another day. Instead of making Mosul their last stand in Iraq, they could flood into Syria, or, more likely, disperse into the vast Jazeera desert between Mosul and Anbar where it already has some facilities. A fight to the death in Mosul could not only be costly for the remaining civilians, but a dramatic defeat for ISIS in that city would mean a definitive blow to their organization and its worldwide standing. Their enhanced presence in Syria would add to the complications in that country, and a retrenching in the desert would mean that the fight against ISIS in Iraq would continue for some time to come.

The speed of military success in Mosul. There is a good chance that the operation will eventually succeed in uprooting a weakened ISIS from Mosul, but the speed with which victory is achieved can have a significant impact on the course of events. If the offensive turns into a protracted grind, various actors—including Iran, Turkey, the PKK or Shiite militias—are likely to try and shape events on the ground to their own benefit. The United States and its partners will then face the challenge of countering such interferences. The added time, however, could allow the United States to develop agreed upon plans for post-ISIS Mosul.