What's Turkey's Strategy in the Mosul Offensive?

Seth J. Frantzman

Security, Middle East

Ankara has a long history of influence in northern Iraq.

In mid-April of 2003, two weeks after the U.S. 173rd paratroop division had taken Kirkuk, eleven Turkish men were detained by American forces near the city. They were Turkish special forces dressed as civilians but carrying AK-47s and body-armor. “They did not come here with a pure heart,” U.S. commander Col. Bill Mayville told reporters. “Their objective is to create an environment that can be used by Turkey to send a large peacekeeping force into Kirkuk.” The headline in Time magazine described the event as “The Turks Enter Iraq.” Thirteen years later, the Turkish presence is as robust as ever and seeks to influence post-ISIS Iraq.

Over the years Turkey has been accused of “invading” northern Iraq numerous times, most recently by the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, which has threatened to take Turkey to the UN Security Council over its role in the war against Islamic State. A more careful reading of history reveals that Turkey has a long history in northern Iraq; it didn’t “enter” the north so much as remain there in one form or another since the Ottoman Empire lost its Iraqi dominions to the British in 1918. Turkey’s role has also progressed through various stages of influence, from seeking outright annexation of the north in the 1920s, to establishing bases aimed at fighting the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in the 1990s, to expanding influence among Turkmen minorities and seeking to support Sunni Arab demands for a post-ISIS Mosul today. Over time the Turks have also progressed through stages of alliance and contretemps with various groups in Iraq, including Kurds, Arabs, the Americans and the central government. Today, Turkey may be one of the central counterbalancing factors to the Iranian role in Iraq.