Lebanon's New Hezbollah-Led Political Order

Firas Maksad

Politics, Middle East

How to move past Michel Aoun’s deal with the devil.

Following two and a half years of political deadlock that left Lebanon with no president, parliamentarians elected a Hezbollah-aligned leader as head of state this Monday. It is a stunning political development, even for a country long infamous for its complex web of sectarian politics, Faustian bargains and foreign meddling in its domestic affairs. More importantly, it allows Iran the opportunity to consolidate its grip on this Mediterranean nation, bolstering its regional influence at the expense of the United States and its allies.

The story of how Michel Aoun became president is emblematic of dynamics throughout the Middle East. Western-leaning politicians in Beirut, led by former prime minister Saad Hariri, enjoyed a parliamentary majority and have long opposed Aoun’s election. They insisted that legislators fulfill their constitutional duties by attending parliament and electing a president. Instead, Hezbollah and its allies boycotted and paralyzed state institutions, until Hariri finally acquiesced.

In this war of political attrition, the Western-leaning majority could have prevailed over the illegal obstructionism of Iran and its allies—but they were abandoned and systematically deprived of meaningful political and financial support. While Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah repeatedly boasted about the bountiful financial and military assistance his party is receiving from Tehran, Hariri was left unable to pay even the salaries of his own staff.

Local factors, including political incompetence and financial mismanagement, surely played a role, but it was the undeniable withdrawal of foreign backing that resulted in such a remarkable reversal of fortunes. With the Obama administration widely perceived as accommodating Iranian encroachment throughout the region, and a Saudi leadership preoccupied with internal reforms and the war in Yemen, Hariri and his allies were practically forced to cut a deal. To survive they had to accept becoming Hezbollah’s junior partners in running the affairs of the Lebanese state.