'Little Blue Sailors': Maritime Hybrid Warfare Is Coming (In the South China Sea and Beyond)

Michael Peck

Security, Asia

What can the U.S. Navy and American allies do about it?

It’s 2019, and an innocent-looking coastal steamer approaches a group of Vietnamese fishing boats in the South China Sea. Suddenly the steamer launches speedboats, which devastate the fishing boats with rockets and machine guns before slipping away. In its wake, it leaves crude mines that damage Vietnamese warships rushing to the aid of the fishermen.

Vietnam accuses China of being the culprit. China denies this, but hastens to add that Vietnam can’t protect fishermen and oil platforms in the South China Sea—yet by coincidence, Beijing can.

Welcome to hybrid warfare on the high seas.

This is the grim scenario laid out by former U.S. Navy admiral James Stavridis. In an article in the U.S. Naval Institute’s Proceedings magazine, Stavridis warns that what he calls “maritime hybrid warfare” is coming, with dire implications for vulnerable targets such as commercial ships, oil platforms and mining rigs.

“Given its need to appear somewhat ambiguous to outside observers, maritime hybrid warfare generally will be conducted in the coastal waters of the littorals,” Stavridis writes. “Instead of using force directly from identifiable ‘gray hull’ navy platforms, hybrid warfare will feature the use of both civilian vessels (tramp steamers, large fishing vessels, light coastal tankers, small fast craft, and even ‘low slow’ skiffs with outboard engines).”

Ships will be manned by “little blue sailors” masquerading as anything from nationalist groups and terrorists to simple vacationers enjoying the ocean. The vessels will be armed with the machine guns, handheld rocket launchers and man-portable antiaircraft missiles that are typical fixtures on small craft deployed by nations such as Iran. Stavridis also envisions them armed with nonlethal weapons, such as laser dazzlers, tear gas dispensers and water cannon, as well as sophisticated equipment used by regular navies, such as sonobuoys and underwater sensors.