Less than 500 daily Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila by end of August, September seen

The number of Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila may further decline to less than 500 by the end of August or the first week of September, said independent OCTA Research group on Thursday, Aug. 18.

With a growth rate of -9 percent and a positivity rate of 15.7 percent, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said that the number of Covid-19 cases in the country’s capital region is still on a downward trend.

“The [National Capital Region] (NCR) had 845 new cases on Aug. 17, 2022 as reported by the [Department of Health] (DOH). This brings the seven-day average down to 1,173 for an [average daily attack rate] (ADAR) of 8.14. This is lower than the 7-day average on Aug. 10 for a one week growth rate of -9 percent,” said David in a tweet.

David also noted the decrease in Metro Manila’s Covid-19 positivity rate from 17.1 percent on Aug. 9 to 15.7 percent as of Aug. 16. Other indicators likewise proved that the region’s infections are decreasing. Its healthcare utilization rate, for an instance, was 37 percent, while its intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy rate was 31 percent as of Aug. 16.

With these observations, David said that cases in the region may further decrease to less than 1,000 by Aug. 18. It could further decline by the end of the month or the first week of September 2022 “if the trends hold,” said David.

“If the trends hold, we expect less than 500 new cases per day in the NCR by [the] end of August or first week of September. The NCR remains at moderate risk at this time as level of infections remain significant,” he furthered.