Iran Nuclear Deal’s Next Test: Getting Through the IAEA

Mark Hibbs

Security, Middle East

The agency is meeting on whether Iran has come clean about trying to build the bomb—and thus whether the nuclear deal moves forward.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and its member countries will take critically important decisions in the coming days about allegations that Iran has worked on making nuclear weapons. Their actions will determine whether and how the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—the agreement which Iran and six other countries including the United States concluded this summer to end the Iran nuclear crisis—will be implemented.

First, IAEA director general Yukiya Amano will report conclusions to the IAEA board of governors about evidence suggesting that, beginning in the 1980s, Iran’s military worked on nuclear weapons development. Then, on December 15, the board which represents IAEA member countries will respond to Amano’s findings.

On paper, how the IAEA and its member states proceed should be cut-and-dried. The IAEA is a technical agency and its job is to present conclusions representing all pertinent facts. Since 2003, the IAEA has informed the board about what it has learned about Iran’s nuclear program, including activities that Iran tried to conceal from the IAEA. In response to these findings, the board has taken actions, expressed in resolutions.

In practice, however, the division of labor concerning how Amano and the IAEA’s member governments handle hitherto unresolved nuclear weapons-making allegations will not be so clearly defined.