Census estimates say Lake County’s population has declined in recent years; ‘We’re just kind of expecting slow growth from here on out’

At the start of the century, Lake County was experiencing a rise in population, according to archival data from the U.S. Census. In 2000, the population was 644,599; 10 years later it was 703,462.

Lake County’s population has steadily declined since 2020, according to the most recent estimates from the U.S. Census, marking a change from the population growth experienced by the county in the first two decades of the 21st century.

Population for the suburban county north of Chicago reached its peak to date in April 2020, at 714,336 people. As of July 1, 2023, the number of people in the county decreased by 0.8%, or about 5,500 people, to 708,760, according to the U.S. Census.

While the 2020 census counted responses from household surveys, the annual estimates between the 10-year counts are based in part on counting births, deaths and moves in and out, using the number of tax returns and Medicare filings.

Senior policy analyst at the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) Elizabeth Ginsberg said it’s hard to know where people are moving right now.

“I think we also kind of try to take these annual estimates with a grain of salt because it’s pretty easy to estimate births and deaths, and it’s very, very challenging to estimate migration,” she said.

National population trends are occurring in the Chicago metropolitan area in their own way, Ginsberg noted. People are increasingly moving out of older, legacy, industrial cities in the Midwest and Northeast, and into faster-growing metropolitan areas along the coasts and in the Sunbelt.

The country’s population is also getting older and having fewer children, a trend seen locally as well, she said.

For the past few years, Lake County has experienced natural growth as there have been more births than deaths, Ginsberg noted. There’s also been a “modest positive increase” in international migrants, the analyst added.

However, the Census Bureau is showing a negative domestic migration, or people moving out of the county to elsewhere in the region, state or country, Ginsberg said.

At the start of the century, Lake County was experiencing a rise in population, according to archival data from the U.S. Census. In 2000, the population was 644,599; 10 years later it was 703,462.

“The growth we saw 20 years ago was kind of abnormal for the overall trend of the region, really, a period of rapid growth for the region,” Ginsberg said. “We’re just kind of expecting slow growth from here on out.”

Stacked up against the rest of the Chicago metro region, Lake County’s decline was not as large of a percentage change as that experienced by Cook or DuPage counties, which lost 3.6% and 1.3% of their populations, respectively.

Neighboring McHenry County and southern Will County were the only collar counties to see population growth, with 0.8% and 0.5% population increase respectively. Lake County remains the third-most populous county in the Chicago metropolitan area, following Cook and DuPage counties.

“If one county has seen out-migration, it’s quite likely that at least some of that is landing in another county,” Ginsberg said. “Even though there may be a decline in one county, it’s possible that that’s contributing to growth, or kind of bouncing out onto the region overall.”

Cities vs. villages

After 2020, Lake County’s population begins to decrease, with the majority of the decline coming from the county’s larger municipalities of more than 30,000 people, according to the census estimates.

Some smaller villages, with fewer than 10,000 residents, in the county defied the county trend and had population growth from 2020 to 2023.

Ginsberg said the method in which the Census Bureau estimates municipality numbers is by counting the number of new and demolished housing units. The agency then reconciles those estimates with the overall county population estimate.

“It’s possible that some of these smaller communities that are kind of actively pursuing development, and greenfield development may be showing more growth than some of these larger communities that are focusing more on redevelopment or even infill development,” she said.

Municipalities in Lake County that saw population growth in the three-year period include Highwood, Hawthorn Woods, Kildeer and Volo. The village of Volo experienced the largest growth at 13.9%, expanding from 6,160 people in 2020 to 7,016 in 2023.

Kildeer experienced a 7.2% growth in population from 2020 to 2023, while Highwood and Hawthorn Woods saw 4.7% and 3.4% growth, respectively.

Areas that had the largest population declines were Waukegan, Zion, Tower Lakes, Round Lake Beach and Round Lake Heights. At 87,642 people, Waukegan remains the largest city in the county.

Waukegan and Zion both experienced a 1.9% decline in population, or about 1,670 people lost in Waukegan and 472 people in Zion. The village of Tower Lakes had the largest change at a 2% decline, or only 24 people, bringing the 2023 population to 1,200 people.

“There’s been a lot of speculation about where people are relocating since the pandemic, and that could be a part of it, but we don’t have any data to really support that just yet,” Ginsberg said.

chilles@chicagotribune.com