It is no longer clear that Turkey provides a counterweight to Iran in the Middle East. Ankara has ambitions of its own.

Under the guise of leading a moderate Sunni axis and assisting the West against Iran’s radical Shia bloc, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey is advancing a far more ambitious vision: the restoration of Turkey’s regional hegemony.

Ankara’s economic and diplomatic ties with the West, including its NATO membership, are tactical tools to attain regional hegemony rather than genuine commitments to shared interests with the United States. Turkey’s ultimate objective is to reclaim the influence once enjoyed by the Ottoman Empire, which ruled vast swaths of Asia, Europe, and Africa for over six centuries. It follows that these ambitions threaten US, Western, and Israeli interests alike.

The New Islamist Axis

The close relationship between Turkey and Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Shara, signals a dangerous realignment. Despite Western hopes that the collapse of the Iran-led axis in Syria would stabilize the region, the “Erdoğan-Shara axis” risks replacing one radical bloc with another.

Analysts such as Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak warn that Turkey is now the de facto powerbroker in Syria, directing events via its proxies. Turkish-led “joint operations commands” now reportedly coordinate activity across Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon. While this may weaken Iran’s footprint, it empowers Ankara’s Islamist ambitions rather than promoting peacebuilding in Syria.

Israel and Syria are now publicly admitting to pushing forward a peace agreement under the auspices of the United States. Yet given Erdoğan’s strong influence in Syria, these ambitions may face hardships—or worse, come to fruition under an innocent guise that would later entail heavy costs.

NATO’s “Double Agent”

Even as Turkey seeks to curb Iranian and Russian influence, its hardly an ally for either Israel or the West. At an Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit in June, Erdoğan openly backed Iran, a country recognized by the US as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, declaring, “We are optimistic that victory will be Iran’s,” while accusing Israel of igniting the region. His statements reveal both solidarity with sanctioned adversaries and claims to regional leadership over the Islamic world.

Meanwhile, Erdoğan continues to whitewash Hamas, recently describing it as a “resistance movement,” not a terrorist group, in an interview with Fox News. The Turkish president significantly escalated his rhetoric since the beginning of the Gaza war, accusing Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu of committing “genocide” in Gaza, “no less than what Hitler did.” He proudly leads massive rallies around the country, even going as far as threatening to “invade” Israel last year, “just as we entered Karabakh, just as we entered Libya.”

Indeed, Turkey has been hosting and harboring Hamas leaders on its soil for years, providing them with financial networks in defiance of US sanctions. Turkey’s ties with Hamas are longstanding and deep—politically, financially, and operationally. Hamas has established real estate companies, investment funds, and sham NGOs in Turkey, an enterprise whose scale has turned Turkey into a major Hamas financial hub, overseeing assets worth more than half a billion dollars.

Hamas operatives have also received training in Turkey, returning with funds and directives to escalate attacks against Israel. Inter alia, this was proven in documents seized by the IDF in the Gaza Strip, exposing Hamas’ “Shadow Unit”—an undercover squad that left Gaza to Iran via Turkey for guidance and sponsorship in 2019. Ankara justifies its support through euphemisms that attempt to distinguish Hamas as a political, rather than a terrorist entity.

No Longer the Lesser Evil

Meanwhile, Ankara has been building the largest military around the Mediterranean, expanding defense exports to $7.1 billion in 2024, and gaining combat experience in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus. Though lacking stealth aircraft and a long-range ballistic missile arsenal, Turkey seeks to fill these gaps through US arms purchases.

Erdoğan’s threats go beyond Israel. In 2022, he threatened to launch ballistic missiles at Greece. Turkey still illegally occupies Northern Cyprus, a move firmly condemned by the European Union, of which Cyprus is part. During a July 2024 visit to the territory, Erdoğan declared his intention to establish a military base there.

The West’s hope that Turkey will counterbalance Iran’s Shia axis misreads Ankara’s intentions. As recent Iran-Turkey defense dialogues demonstrate, the two share growing military and intelligence cooperation despite sectarian differences. In 2025, Tehran’s defense minister hailed Turkey as a partner in facing “the challenges before the Islamic world.”

Finally, Turkey’s nuclear ambitions should keep the West alert. Though Turkey lacks an independent nuclear arsenal, it hosts 50 US-controlled warheads and is now signaling a civilian nuclear drive that could evolve militarily. In September 2025, Ankara announced plans for domestic reactor development and nationwide bunker construction, including nuclear shelters.

Systemic Islamization

Under Erdoğan, Turkish society has undergone systematic Islamization, a reverse of Atatürk’s secular legacy. The government cultivates a conservative Sunni extremist ideology, mirroring Iran’s revolutionary model.

Turkey courts Western engagement through trade, defense procurement, joint military exercises with the United States, and a rhetoric of partnership—as illustrated in Erdoğan’s latest visit to Washington to meet President Trump. Yet this dual-track strategy—appearing as a NATO ally while empowering jihadist actors—mirrors Iran’s former guise as a stabilizer against ISIS.

Turkey’s assertive foreign policy, Islamist orientation, and cooperation with US-designated terror groups have increasingly rendered it an unreliable ally and emerging revisionist power. Its neo-Ottoman aspirations pose a strategic challenge that Washington, NATO, and Jerusalem can no longer afford to ignore.

It is now unavoidable to ramp up demands on Erdoğan before any further strengthening of the Turkish-Western alliance—if not reevaluate Turkey’s role in the West’s security architecture altogether. The West currently underestimates Turkey’s ambitions, focuses on short-sighted moves while ignoring its destabilizing and aggressive military moves and ties with radical terrorist groups.

The logic of “the lesser evil”—choosing Turkey over Iran—has run its course. It is of the essence to shift from accommodation to vigilance with Turkey, scrutinizing its role in keeping regional stability and participation in the global security burden sharing, and its status as a legitimate Western partner. Until it changes its course, Ankara has now established itself as a strategic competitor, rather than a partner, to the US international security interests.

About the Author: Moran Alaluf

Moran Alaluf is a researcher at the David Institute for Security Policy, an indpendent, non-profit think tank based in Israel. 

Image: Thomas Koch / Shutterstock.com.

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